Russia is planning a major offensive this summer. Russian military plans for control of the Donetsk region
Russia is preparing a major offensive this summer in the south and east. The main confrontation for control of the Donetsk region is expected to move towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, Biziday reports, citing analyzes by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Ukrainian battlefield mapping project DeepState.
Analysts anticipate that at the current rate of Russian troop advance, the Russian army could conquer the rest of the Donetsk region in about two years.
According to DeepState's analysis, approximately 78% of the Donetsk region is currently under Russian occupation, whereas before the invasion Russia controlled almost a third of the territory. Since 2022, when Russian troops captured 24.4% of the territory, the pace has steadily decreased: between 2023 and 2025, the Russians captured 21.8%.
Russia has concentrated considerable resources in the area, over 100,000 soldiers, and yet they have not been able to break through the Ukrainian defenses. For example, predictions that the city of Pokrovsk should have fallen quickly did not come true. Pokrovsk and the neighboring town of Mîrnohrad are still partially under the control of Ukrainian forces.
Russia still has a superior military potential and in the long run some localities may gradually fall.
In the coming period, the Russian military is preparing the next steps before a potential decisive confrontation in the direction of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the last bastions of Ukrainian defense: striking Ukrainian logistics, supply routes of ammunition, fuel and troops.
In parallel, Russia is preparing a large-scale offensive in the summer of 2026, which could start as early as April, according to ISW analysts. Apart from the main directions, on the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk axis, Russia is also targeting the south, in the direction of Zaporozhye, for the fulfillment of more comprehensive war objectives.
But Moscow currently faces a major problem: insufficient reserves. Although it has been amassing reserves of new recruits since last fall, heavy losses have forced Russia to call on them to cover areas where Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks.
At present, Russia has only managed limited attacks without a breakthrough of the front – in several areas, for example near Lîman and Kostiantînivka, Russian troops have remained stuck and rely on infiltrations with infantry, with insignificant progress,
The conclusion of the experts is that the battles for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk will involve huge losses of men and equipment, and the outcome will depend on the preservation of logistics and resistance to prolonged battles of attrition.
“We anticipate at least two years of fighting, during which they will lose colossal personnel, equipment and other resources,” the analysts at DeepState concluded.
“Russia's plans for a summer offensive highlight Russia's determination to achieve its war objectives, including the occupation of Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, by military means if necessary. Senior Kremlin officials have repeatedly said that Russia will continue efforts on the battlefield to achieve its goals if it cannot achieve them at the negotiating table. The Russian military command's intentions to launch a full-scale summer offensive show the Kremlin's disinterest in a negotiated end to the war in the coming weeks or months.”ISW analysts wrote.
