Capital war, escape from the USA and apocalypse in the SaaS segment. We check what's going on on Wall Street

After the shock caused on the markets by the so-called SaaS apocalypse, financiers are feverishly looking for purchasing opportunities. The topic of capital diversification towards Europe and emerging markets is becoming more and more common. All this is happening in the shadow of warnings about the coming “capital war” and rising populism in the US ahead of the midterm elections.

Bank of America: Generative AI has hit valuations

Shares of SaaS (Software as a Service) companies experienced a sharp collapse in valuations after financial markets were gripped by fear over the products of competing artificial intelligence company Anthropic.

According to Bank of America analysts, the narrative that “generative AI will destroy software developers” has become entrenched in investors' minds over the past six months. This led to a decline in EV/EBITDA ratios in the entire SaaS segment by approximately 30%.

– The sector is currently valued at 13.1x EV/EBITDA compared to the 5-year average of 21x. Valuations in the US software sector have shrunk by 35%. within half a year, from 32.3x to 21x – calculate the bank's analysts.

Experts acknowledge that “some segments of the technology ecosystem will inevitably be hit hard by generative AI.” However, they point out that valuations are becoming attractive elsewhere – especially for high-quality companies with sustainable competitive advantages and prospects for AI integration.

Analysts pay attention to the German SAP, whose current valuation reflects the market belief that the company's revenues will decline by 14% and EBIT by 20%. until 2035.

– This would require an increase in the turnover of current customers (which we assess as an unlikely scenario) and stopping the migration of software from customer infrastructure to the cloud, which is not even half completed yet – add Bank of America experts.

In their opinion, companies with strong roots in the market are in the best position to create high-quality AI agents because they can use databases that others do not have access to.

Ray Dalio: We are on the threshold of a capital war

Even before the “SaaS apocalypse,” Wall Street titans were discussing capital flows in a world shaken by tectonic geopolitical movements.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the world was on the “threshold of a capital war.” We are talking about a situation in which tools such as trade embargoes, restrictions on access to capital markets or the use of debt securities held as a lever of pressure are used as weapons.

“We're on the edge,” Dalio said. – That means we're not there yet, but we're pretty close and it wouldn't be difficult to cross that line and end up in a capital war because there are mutual concerns.

As an example, the investor cited recent tensions between the US and Europe resulting from American ambitions to take over Greenland, which belongs to Denmark.

Holders of U.S. dollar-denominated assets in Europe fear they could be targeted by sanctions, and “the U.S. side may fear retaliation or loss of capital or buyers” in Europe – which has accounted for 80% of foreign investors in U.S. bonds in recent months.

– Capital and money are important. We see that today capital restrictions are being introduced all over the world and the question arises who will feel their effects. That's why we're on the brink – it doesn't mean we're already at war, but it does mean the concerns about it are justified, concluded the founder of Bridgewater Associates.

Amundi boss: We are diversifying our portfolios, running away from the dollar

Valerie Baudson, head of the largest European asset manager – Amundi – announces that in the coming year she will continue to diversify her portfolios, reducing exposure to the American market. The company encourages its customers to do the same.

– Amundi is already actively diversifying portfolios and has been encouraging clients to actively diversify over the last 12-15 months. We will also advise our clients to diversify their positions throughout this year, Baudson said in an interview with the Financial Times.

Amid concern over President Donald Trump's chaotic economic policies, dollar-denominated assets have become less attractive. The US currency itself has fallen significantly since Washington launched a tariff war with the rest of the world last year, and this year its decline has been accelerated by threats to Europe over Greenland.

According to Baudson, the first safe haven for investors was gold, which explains at least part of the record price increase in recent months.

– What we saw was a desire to diversify and move away from American assets in order to escape from the dollar, which was excessively invested in, explained the head of Amundi.

This trend has sparked an inflow of money into Europe and emerging markets. Last year, managers recorded a record inflow of EUR 88 billion into their funds, which helped increase the value of assets under Amundi management to a historically high level.

Larry Fink: The Indian stock market will soon double in value

Larry Fink, head of BlackRock, believes in the prospects of the Indian capital market. However, it must convince local investors that shares may be a better investment than gold or real estate.

In August last year, the investment giant, together with its local partner Reliance Industries, offered investment funds, also addressed to domestic investors. In recent years, foreign capital has withdrawn from India, but the growth in the local market has been sustained by domestic demand.

Despite this, a large part of the country's inhabitants remains faithful to traditional investment directions – real estate and precious metals such as gold and silver.

– The Indian stock market will double, triple or even quadruple in the next 20 years – argues Fink, quoted by the Indian daily “The Economic Times”.

– I couldn't say the same about gold – added the head of BlackRock.

Citi Research: Populism and the fight for living standards will drive fintechs

– With the upcoming (in the US – editor) midterm elections and attention on living standards, populism is on the rise – notes Drew Pettit, US equity strategist at Citi Research.

The expert draws attention to the direct relationship between the standard of living and debt.

– The standard of living is closely related to taking out debts. If you give people more money through tax breaks, leave more money in their bank accounts, they're probably going to use some leverage anyway. They will use financing or take out a loan to buy more of the things they want, the analyst explains.

Therefore, Citi offered clients a “tactical” basket of shares, focused on companies from the financial technology (fintech) industry operating in the segment of consumer loans for lower-income customers.

This basket includes, among others: Klarna Group, Block and Intuit. This group of companies may benefit if conditions are created for consumers to facilitate access to credit.