A key Russia-US treaty is ending. “Three Scenarios”

On February 5, the New START treaty, the last nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, expires. The document was signed in much calmer times, in 2010, by the then presidents of the USA and Russia – Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev.

The treaty limited the number of deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 for each side and set a delivery limit of 700 operational intercontinental missiles, submarine-launched missiles and heavy strategic bombers.

The treaty was de facto paralyzed in 2023 when Russia suspended its participation in it. Moreover, New START has never been a perfect document. For example, it set a limit of 1,550 warheads, but at the same time each plane was considered one “warhead” – however, bombers can carry more than one warhead.

So is it really the empty document that is dying? Gen. Stanisław Koziej, former head of the National Security Bureau, does not agree with this approach. In his opinion, the expiry of the treaty is a very serious event. — A binding treaty always imposes real obligations, non-compliance with the rules is recorded, the superpower must explain it – says the expert.

In other words, there were rules until now. Even if they were not fully followed, they were there. This is ending and – as the general says – times of “nuclear anarchy” may come.

Three scenarios by General Stanisław Koziej

What might the future look like after the expiration of the New START treaty? The former head of the National Security Bureau outlines basically three scenarios.

The first is not optimistic. As Gen. Koziej says, the expiry of the last such treaty may lead to an “uncontrolled nuclear arms race.” The unbridled competition of the current great powers – the USA and Russia – is one thing. More countries are joining the race. For example, China has more and more nuclear weapons. But the collapse of the current security system causes more countries to start thinking about their own nuclear weapons. Recently, this has been talked about even in countries where until recently, for historical reasons, such talks would have been completely unthinkable – in Germany and Japan.

Countries such as Australia and South Korea may also develop their nuclear weapons. There is also talk of European nuclear weapons – it is possible that the united Scandinavian countries may prepare their own weapons. One can also imagine that Taiwan, threatened by Beijing, is working on such weapons.

Gen. Koziej says that if the two leading nuclear powers set a “bad example”, other countries may quickly follow. Currently, according to the estimates of the SIPRI institute, there are just over 12.2 thousand in the world. nuclear warheads – but 90 percent of them are controlled by Russia and the USA. In this scenario, the number of warheads may grow very dynamically in the coming years.

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The second scenario sounds much better. Gen. Stanisław Koziej says that world powers can simply establish some framework for the further development of nuclear weapons. However, as the general predicts, it will no longer be an agreement only between Russia and the USA. China is becoming a big player in this game. It is estimated that the country already has about 600 warheads – but according to American reports, by 2030 they may have about 1,000 of them. This is still much less than Russia (approx. 4.3 thousand) or the USA (3.7 thousand), but the importance of the Middle Kingdom is growing – and Beijing should probably find a place at the table.

Of course, the question remains whether such a potential deal would reassure smaller countries. The difficult geopolitical situation in the world could cause Europeans, Taiwanese or Japanese to think about their nuclear bombs anyway, despite the new agreement.

And the third scenario? The general assumes that there will be some sort of crisis. It may be a “worst” scenario – for example, a nuclear conflict. If it were a limited conflict, as our interlocutor says, all the world's powers could sit down at the table and reach an agreement. Perhaps it would be possible to develop a new treaty or simply a framework for dealing with these weapons.

Another thing is that – as Stanisław Koziej says – it would not have to be a nuclear conflict in which a nuclear bomb would be used. One can imagine an extremely serious situation in which the world would come very close to such a war – but in which at the last moment a moment of sobering would come and the parties would reach an agreement that would make it possible to postpone such a war for many years. Of course, there is precedent for such a situation. It was the so-called Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 Many historians believe that the world was then on the brink of nuclear war between the Warsaw Pact and the West. However, the catastrophe was avoided, and for example, in 1963, a special “hot” telephone line was launched, which was supposed to allow for quick contact between world leaders during the crisis.

Of course, there is a risk that this time world leaders will not show reflection and responsibility – and that such a scenario will end in a wider nuclear war.

What should Poland do?

“If Moscow and Washington stop respecting each other's restrictions on their arsenals of long-range nuclear weapons, it will mean the end of more than half a century of restrictions on these weapons,” reads a Reuters analysis. Gen. Koziej admits in an interview with Business Insider Polska that the new reality will be quite an obvious challenge for Warsaw.

Nuclear weapons for Poland are not often discussed in public space. Former president Andrzej Duda did raise the topic of our country's participation in the Nuclear Sharing program, but so far little has come of it.

See also: Andrzej Duda wants nuclear weapons in Poland. What are our chances?

Gen. Koziej says that “we need to think about nuclear weapons.” In his opinion, various options should be analyzed. One of them may be the Nuclear Sharing program, another – for example, joining a possible future European program. Or reaching an agreement with the French, who could also put Poland under a “nuclear umbrella”. These are all, of course, more theoretical considerations. But other options can also be imagined – for example, the joint development of nuclear weapons by “medium” countries that feel threatened by great powers. Such a group could include Poland, Japan, South Korea, Australia or even Sweden.

Can Poland develop such weapons on its own? It's not impossible, but it would be very time-consuming and unimaginably expensive. France, for example, spent as much as 14% on maintaining its arsenal in 2024. defense budget, i.e. EUR 6.6 billion. And that's over PLN 27 billion. Maintaining an arsenal is one thing, developing weapons is another. The costs for a country like Poland are therefore difficult to estimate – but they would certainly be gigantic.

See also: The whole world is arming Poland. This is what we buy [MAPA]

Author: Mateusz Madejski, journalist of Business Insider Polska