War changes the way of thinking. Another country is starting to look towards the euro. “All it takes is for the Russian drone to fly into the airspace”
Giving up its own currency would be contrary to Sweden's long-standing approach that national control over the krone is an important tool of economic policy.
Sweden has never been formally excluded from the monetary union like its Danish neighbors, but a 2003 referendum in which a large majority voted against joining meant that Brussels never pressed the issue.
But just as Russia's war in Ukraine prompted traditionally neutral Sweden to join NATO, US President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policy changes the discussion about monetary sovereignty.
On Tuesday, Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson informed parliament that her Moderate Coalition Party would appoint a panel of experts to assess the advantages and disadvantages of joining the euro zone – if the party remains in power after the September parliamentary elections.
— Those in power may fear that in the event of a serious crisis – such as an escalation of the armed conflict in the Baltic Sea region or serious turmoil in other parts of the world – the Swedish krona may depreciate very quicklywhich will have serious consequences for the economy, Stefan Gerlach, chief economist at EFG Bank, tells POLITICO.
Over the last decade, the koruna has lost over 20%. its value against the euro, after which it has strengthened somewhat in recent months. A sudden drop in the value of the currency in response to geopolitical tensions could force Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, to raise borrowing costs to prevent a sharp rise in prices. And this, in turn, could lead to the collapse of the Swedish economy.
Swedish Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson in Brussels, January 20, 2026.Thierry Monasse/Getty Images/Getty Images
On Thursday, after its monetary policy meeting, the Riksbank said that while the overall assessment of the economic outlook had not changed since December, “recent developments, for example related to US trade and foreign policy, expanded the range of potential future scenarios“.
The Swedish economy has shown resilience to such uncertainty, but “sentiment in the household and business sectors could deteriorate quickly.”
Gerlach emphasizes that it remains to be seen whether such factors will be enough to change Sweden's position on the euro, pointing to deep-seated distrust of the way the common currency is managed and fears of being drawn into future state bailouts.
— Politicians will weigh the risk of an external crisis against the risk of another crisis in the euro zone, says the Swedish economist, who also served as deputy governor of the Central Bank of Ireland.
Will the euro club get bigger?
The public remains cautious. A Eurobarometer survey conducted last year showed that only 39 percent Swedes believed that the country was ready to adopt the euro. However, this is an increase of 7 percentage points compared to 10 years earlier and could increase even more if international tensions threaten the Swedish krona.
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Bulgaria's recent admission to the euro club makes The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden remain the last countries not to join the eurozone. Their accession is legally required once they meet and maintain certain economic criteria for a specified period of time. Avoiding these thresholds has been a strategy adopted by countries such as Poland to keep the euro out of their citizens' wallets.
— Our economy is doing clearly better than most countries that have adopted the euro, said Finance Minister Andrzej Domański in an interview for the Financial Times, citing solid economic growth, low unemployment and rising wages. This argument does not necessarily apply to Sweden, whose economy is much smaller and more vulnerable to global uncertainty.
The benefits outweigh the costs
Trump's efforts to take over Greenland, which is controlled by Sweden's neighbor and close ally Denmark, may have already shifted public support among Swedes towards the euro, notes Swedish economist Lars Calmfors in an interview with POLITICO.
Calmfors chaired the last Swedish expert panel that examined the advantages of adopting the euro in 1996, three years before the introduction of the single currency. But that was 30 years ago. In December, Calmfors published a report arguing that the benefits of adopting the euro – such as more integrated trade, economic stability and geopolitical alignment – currently outweigh the costs, even if it means losing an independent monetary policy. The new assessment – as he emphasizes – was dictated by both political and economic reasons.
According to Sweden's finance minister, joining the eurozone would take years even if a new panel of experts recommended it. A cautious approach is necessary to maintain the support of the far-right populist party, the Sweden Democrats.
This party's support is crucial to maintaining the current minority government, and it is strongly against joining the eurozone. However, according to Gerlach, in the current unstable situation It doesn't take much to change public opinion. — All it takes is for a Russian drone to fly into Swedish airspace, he says.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
