Ten months before the important midterm elections, Trump's advantage may become his liability

Since Trump sent more than 3,000 ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers to Minnesota after Christmas as part of “Operation Metro Surge,” many residents of the U.S. capital have felt under siege. Every day on the street corner in front of the small Latino market, Mercado Central, residents gather to make sure no ICE immigration units enter the stores.

They blow loud whistles to warn migrants in the area of ​​the imminent threat of ICE detention.

ICE operations have become commonplace in Minneapolis. However, after the death of the second activist, the US president stopped this wave. He changed leadership of ICE, entrusting it to a veteran of that formation – his chief migration adviser, Tom Homan.

Homan has to regain control over a situation that is becoming uncomfortable for his boss. Both Trump and Homan announced over the weekend that they would withdraw a significant portion of ICE forces if better cooperation could be achieved with Democrats governing Minnesota.

An asset that is starting to weigh heavily

So far, migration and border security have been the topics on which Trump has gained the most points in the eyes of American voters. At the peak of the US migration crisis in December 2023, almost 250,000 people crossed the border without documents. The statistics dropped to almost zero at the end of the Trump administration. Meanwhile, about half a million migrants were deported from the country.

But ten months before the crucial midterm elections in early November, Trump's advantages are beginning to turn against him.

According to a Pew Research Center survey, half of voters believe that the government is doing worse than they expected. Only 21% are satisfied with the implementation of election promises, and only approximately 27% of Americans declares that he supports all or most of Trump's political plans.

This is especially true when it comes to the topic of migration. Footage of shots fired at mother-of-three Renée Nicole Good and nurse Alex Pretti caused outrage and shock across the country – including among Republicans. For many, these cases are tangible proof that Trump is going too far.

Although the majority of the population still supports the deportation of criminal aliens, most people also have a similar opinion distrust of ICEthat it supports filming by activists documenting the activities of this agency. Oh yes 72% consider it unacceptable checking people's residence status based on their language or appearance.

Meanwhile, ICE must do exactly that to fulfill the orders of Stephen Miller, Trump's deputy chief of staff and the main driving force behind his tough deportation policy. According to American media, he ordered the agency to arrest him in the spring minimum 3,000 migrants per daybecause the goal, as Trump promised in his inaugural speech in January 2025, is to deport “millions and millions more” of people. For this purpose The U.S. Congress allocated $75 billion last summer (i.e. approx. ≈ PLN 266 billion) .

To achieve these deportation numbers, ICE is acting radically. However, cities like Minneapolis are so-called “Sanctuary cities” — sanctuary cities that do not prosecute undocumented people and do not cooperate with federal agencies. ICE still has the right to make arrests, which causes serious political tensions between Washington and Democrat-ruled large cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles and Minneapolis.

After the killing of Alex Pretti, these tensions also spread to the US Congress. One reason was that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem publicly stated shortly after the shootings that Pretti was a “domestic terrorist” who attacked ICE agents with weapons.

Many people, by analyzing numerous videos on the Internet, could see that this was not true. A growing number of Republican senators and congressmen who had previously avoided openly opposing Trump began demanding an independent investigation and Noem's resignation.

Miller was also caught admitting that officers may have “not followed procedures.” Two shooters were suspended. At a publicly televised Cabinet meeting on Thursday, where Trump and his ministers boasted about their achievements, Secretary Noem not a single word was mentioned.

Democrats have already achieved one success. In exchange for agreeing to another interim budget, which will prevent another freeze of the government's finances, the opposition has led to the allocation of a budget for ICE, which is now financed only for two weeks.

Until then, Trump must ban face coverings for ICE personnel and end arbitrary raids. Officers must apply the same use of force rules as local police. Additionally, there are to be independent investigations into the deaths of Good and Pretti — something the Trump administration has so far refused to do.