Who could take the place of Ramzan Kadîrov: the Kremlin is preparing the succession in Chechnya
The health of 49-year-old Chechen leader Ramzan Kadîrov has deteriorated significantly in recent months, and Moscow and the authorities in Grozny are already preparing for a possible change of power in the Caucasus republic.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadîrov and Vladimir Putin PHOTO: EPA EFE
In late December, Kadyrov was urgently hospitalized in Moscow, and in early January, Ukrainian intelligence services reported that he was suffering from kidney failure.
In this context, the Kremlin would have already triggered the succession mechanisms, to avoid losing control over Chechnya.
Sources close to the power in Moscow describe the situation in the republic as extremely tense, with decisions made in narrow circles and prepared to be applied immediately after the disappearance of the Chechen leader, dialogue writes.
Everything that is currently happening in Groznyi is carefully hidden, and the political processes are complex and opaque, say the same sources. In parallel, Ramzan Kadîrov is trying to ensure his family's political survival, betting on a dynastic succession.
His main plan is to promote his 18-year-old son Adam Kadîrov, whom he has already placed in key positions in the republic's security apparatus.
Adam is surrounded by his father's trusted men, including Adam Delimkhanov and Magomed Daudov, two of the most influential members of the regime.
Delimkhanov, a former combatant in the Chechen wars, controls diaspora networks and the force apparatus, while Daudov is in charge of the government and internal repression mechanisms.
According to political scientists, Chechnya has become an example of a personalist dictatorship with dynastic transfer of power. Ramzan Kadîrov consolidated his position through clan alliances and strategic marriages of his children to influential families to guarantee family protection after his death.
At the same time, the Chechen leader has tens of thousands of fighters who, although formally subordinate to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, act in reality under his direct control.
“Within the Russian Federation, a subject has emerged in which there is a personalist dictatorship with a dynastic method of transferring power”, said political scientist Dmitri Dubrovski about what is happening in Chechnya.
However, Moscow imposes a clear condition for any successor: the stability of the region must be maintained at any cost, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin cannot afford an unstable Chechnya, and whoever takes power must guarantee the continuity of the system.
Among the possible candidates initially considered was Apti Alaudinov, but he was allegedly excluded due to lack of real authority both in Chechnya and in the diaspora.
Experts do not completely rule out a clan struggle or an attempted opposition if the Kadyrov family's authority weakens, but mass protests or major destabilization are considered unlikely.
“A very large number of residents of the Chechen Republic hope that this government will collapse. They hope, but they do not express it. But if you take off the rose-colored glasses, many understand that absolutely nothing will change… Anyway, it will not be better”said Amina Larsson from the Vayfond association.
