Berlin plans to allocate over EUR 500 billion (over PLN 2.1 trillion) for defense by 2029, achieving the target for NATO countries of 3.5%. GDP six years ahead of schedule. This is a historic commitment that is changing the balance of power in Europe.
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German investments in armaments are ahead of the financial capabilities of most European countries, including France, which has been one of the leaders in this field for years.
But concerns in Paris are not solely financial.
— France is in a fragile situation. German determination to build military power may push us into the red – says François-Xavier Bellamy, French MEP from the EPP. Bellamy, who has long promoted the slogan “buy European” in the context of defense, emphasizes that France should focus on cooperation with its neighbors instead of looking for distant export markets for its arms industry.
New dynamics in Europe
Berlin's decisions, although consistent with NATO's goals, cause tensions in French-German relations. Claudia Major from the German Marshall Fund notes in a statement for Bloomberg that: the traditional division of roles in Europe – with Germany as the economic giant and France as the geopolitical leader – no longer applies.
— Germany now wants to be both an economic and political power. This puts France in a difficult situation – Major emphasizes.
France's concern increased when Berlin announced the European Sky Shield Initiative, which was intended to fill gaps in anti-missile defense systems. Paris felt excluded from this endeavor.
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Additional frustration in France was caused by Germany's decision to purchase 35 American F-35 fighters for EUR 10 billion (approx. PLN 42.3 billion) instead of European aircraft.
Record spending and political tensions
During the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Germany de facto abandoned restrictive debt limits to finance historic investments in armaments. The Bloomberg agency reminds that this is a response to the growing threat from Russia, which forced the Nordic, Baltic countries and Poland to increase defense spending. However, none of these countries can match Germany in terms of the scale and pace of investment.
In December, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte lavished praise on his visit to Berlin:
— Germany sets an example of how to act to ensure safety. We need such determination, he said.
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Nevertheless, concerns about the future of its own defense industry are growing in France. Four French officials, who preferred to remain anonymous and were cited by Bloomberg, admitted that Germany's growing military power raises concerns in Paris about the political consequences of this phenomenon.
Echoes of history and new challenges
For decades, Germany avoided the role of a military leader in Europe, which resulted from its historical experience. Now, however, in the face of changing geopolitical realities, Berlin is changing course. These decisions are closely coordinated with allies, but their scale and pace are causing mixed reactions in Europe.
— France has long complained that it is acting alone in defense. Now that Germany is fully involved, Paris must adapt to a new reality Bellamy notes.
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The uncertainty in France reflects broader tensions in Europe, where old divisions and balances of power are giving way to new challenges. The growth of Berlin's military power, as Bloomberg emphasizes, is only one element of this puzzle, but its effects may be felt far beyond the borders of the continent.
