Fiscal adjustments will be felt in full in 2026 on purchasing power, warns the Forecasting Commission
Inflation erodes purchasing power, Photo: Andriy Popov / Panthermedia / Profimedia Images
Romania's economy is slowing down under the pressure of fiscal adjustments, and purchasing power is being hit by inflation and taxes, according to the latest data from the National Strategy and Forecast Commission, cited by Agerpres. According to forecasts, the impact of fiscal adjustment measures will be more pronounced this year and will be felt especially at the level of the population's decrease in purchasing power, due to the high inflation in the first part of the year and the reduction of incomes.
The institution revised down the economic growth estimate to 1%, amid a contraction in private consumption and the maintenance of high inflationary pressures.
Private consumption enters negative territory
The most drastic change occurs at the level of consumption behavior. CNSP estimates a significant reduction in the population's propensity to spend, which will generate a decrease in private consumption by 0.8%.
In this austere economic landscape, the construction sector remains the main engine of growth, being massively supported by infrastructure projects financed by European funds.
While industry and services show signs of modest recovery, gross investment is forecast to increase by 4.0%, but conditional on the acceleration of the absorption of funds from the “Next Generation EU” instrument, given that the National Recovery and Resilience Program (PNRR) is coming to an end (December 2026).
Gas and food could become more expensive
The labor market also feels the investment uncertainties. CNSP revised the projection on the number of employees for 2026, anticipating its stagnation (0%), compared to the 0.5% increase previously estimated.
In terms of income, the average gross salary is estimated to reach 9,192 lei per month in 2026, an increase of 5.5%. However, this increase will be uneven: while the private sector will try to match the levies with inflation and the minimum wage, in the public sector a decrease in earnings is expected as a result of the fiscal consolidation.
Moreover, experts warn of additional price “shocks”. The reliberalization of natural gas prices and the removal of the capping of the commercial addition to basic foods could temper the process of falling inflation and could hit Romanians' pockets even harder.
The national currency could depreciate
For the year 2026, the Commission's working hypothesis includes a depreciation of approximately 1% of the national currency, with an average exchange rate estimated at 5.11 lei for one euro.
On the foreign trade side, net exports will make a positive contribution (0.5 percentage points) to GDP growth, not necessarily through a burst of exports, but rather through a slowdown in imports (+1.2%) caused by lower domestic demand. The current account deficit is expected to decline to 6.6% of GDP in 2026 from 8% in 2025.
The economy will recover in the coming years
After a year 2026 marked by corrections, the medium-term forecast becomes somewhat more optimistic. For the period 2027-2029, CNSP foresees an average annual economic growth rate of over 2%. Also, private consumption will be relaunched, with an average growth of 2.6% estimated.
The commission also forecasts a revival of the high-value-added services sector and industry, with growth of 2%. As for inflation, it is estimated at 3% in 2027.
