2025 was the third warmest year on record. It can be considered that we are witnessing the formation of a new climate norm, in which the global temperature remains nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius above the value in the pre-industrial era, climatologist Prof. told PAP. Bogdan Chojnicki.
As the specialist noted, the state of the climate does not exempt us from the fight to stop, or certainly to slow down, global warming. In his opinion, this is necessary because “current climate change does not create a safe world.”
In accordance with the demands included in the Paris Agreement of 2015, all countries should strive to limit global warming below 2 degrees C, and ultimately to 1.5 degrees C, compared to the pre-industrial era.
Globally, 2025 was the third warmest year in recorded history, as the average annual global temperature was over 1.4 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial average (1850-1900). In previous years, i.e. 2023 and 2024, average temperatures exceeded the limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
– Currently, warming is oscillating around 1.5 degrees Celsius – temperature values are sometimes slightly below this threshold, and sometimes above it. Therefore, we can say that 2025 is, in a sense, the year of a new climate norm – explained climatologist Prof. Bogdan Chojnicki from the Department of Ecology and Environmental Protection of the University of Life Sciences in Poznań.
In Poland, the record-breaking years in terms of temperature were: 2024 and 2019. – The passing year is colder than 2024, but it is still warmer than the norm – the specialist pointed out.
He recalled that – according to forecasts – in Poland by the end of the century the average temperature may increase to 4-4.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era. We are currently above 2 degrees Celsius.
– This means we're more or less halfway there. And we are still on an upward trend. Therefore, the chances of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era are becoming smaller. However, this does not absolve us from the obligation to act, said the climatologist.
He noted that if we do not radically switch to renewable energy sources, warming in Poland may even exceed the predicted 4.5 degrees Celsius.
– In my opinion the term “new climate normal” can be disastrous because it calms us down in some way. Meanwhile, we are already struggling with very low water levels in most Polish rivers in summer, and at the same time, the Genoese lows are associated with increasingly stronger rainfall, which brings flooding and sometimes devastating floods – said Prof. Chojnicki.
He pointed out that the infrastructure that is currently working may turn out to be insufficient in a warmer climate system. An example is that we still discharge pollutants into rivers, and when the water level in them drops significantly, the concentration of pollutants increases significantly. – We have to find our way in this new reality, at least with refrigeration systems and access to water – said the climatologist.
Prof. Chojnicki noted that the new climate norm will change towards even higher temperatures and even greater disturbances, including: water balance. Meanwhile, water shortages and drought in agriculture, which occurs almost every year, are already generating noticeable costs.
– When talking about adaptation to climate change today, we can no longer take into account moving (migrating) to another, more convenient place, because there are already 8 billion of us on Earth, and climate change is taking place practically all over the Earth – explained the specialist.
In his opinion, there is no certainty that adaptation to climate change will be successful. It is also not certain that we will be able to afford it, for example if we take into account the need to rebuild further damage after flash floods.
– It may turn out that we record losses that we cannot afford to offset. We also cannot forget that climate change will bring us a whole host of new problems that we know nothing about today, emphasized Prof. Chojnicki.
He noted that exceeding the warming threshold of 2 degrees Celsius may trigger processes that will fuel themselves. – This should worry us very much, because it is not the case that after climate change our planet will only become more pleasant to live in. Many places are at risk of flooding as a result of rising sea levels, as well as greater activity of hurricanes, which, among others, they push water inland. Therefore, climate change does not create a safe world. It is building a world with another very serious question mark – commented the climate scientist.
According to him, adaptation to climate change must occur. Political, economic and social systems have considerable adaptability, but one must take into account that some society or social group will not be able to cope with it, the expert explained.
– That is why I am of the opinion that we should constantly counteract climate change – to stop it, or at least slow it down significantly – emphasized Prof. Chojnicki.
He pointed out that climate change is often viewed only through the prism of humans. – Meanwhile, organisms living in the natural environment, exposed to completely new conditions, do not have the same adaptability as humans – explained the specialist.
For example, 200-year-old trees in Poland, which were planted in conditions when average annual temperatures were much lower, should demonstrate flexibility, which unfortunately decreases with age. – Climate change therefore calls into question the functioning of natural ecosystems – concluded Prof. Chojnicki.
Joanna Morga (PAP)
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