The goal of the American operation in Venezuela is to take control of both the extraction and export of raw materials from that country. To that end, Trump and his advisers are discussing a plan to take control of Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA — a regional strategic partner of Russia's state-owned enterprise Rosharubezhneft. According to Trump's plan, increasing supplies of raw materials from Venezuela to the world market will reduce the price of Brent crude oil to $50. per barrel (PLN 181) – currently it is approximately USD 61. (PLN 221).
It is commonly believed that Venezuela has the largest oil deposits in the world — 303 billion barrels, or one fifth of the world's reserves. This does not mean, however, that all you have to do is turn on the tap and a river of oil will immediately flow into the market, lowering prices and reducing the revenues going to the Russian military budget.
Trump's utopian plans
Firstly, about 20 years ago, Venezuela's reserves were estimated at a modest value – about 80 billion barrels of more or less “traditional” hydrocarbons. The rest was heavy and very heavy crude oil, which solidifies during extraction and must be diluted and refined using special equipment, significantly increasing production costs. With the price of Brent crude oil at $50. (PLN 181) per barrel that Trump wants, such technologies are unlikely to be profitable.
Secondly, the sanctions imposed by the US on Venezuela after the election of Nicolas Maduro as president in 2019 reduced its oil production by almost half – precisely because the country lost access to imported materials and technologies for the exploitation of heavy oil deposits. Currently, Venezuela produces less than one million barrels of oil per day (for example, in Russia, daily production is 9 million barrels) – that is less than 1 percent. world production. In 2004, approximately 3.1 million barrels were mined in the country.
No Trump plan will help get production back to that level quickly — that's why the US president's promises to “open the tap and lower prices” seem utopian.
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— Returning to the production level of 20-25 years ago will take at least 10-15 years and will require huge investments that will be impossible without political stability, and there is currently no certainty about this, says Tatiana Lanszyna, an energy expert.
Due to the deep institutional crisis and failed economic policy of Venezuela, and later also international sanctions, for decades the necessary investments did not flow to this industry, but also to the entire country, he adds.
As a result, Venezuela has outdated infrastructure and a shortage of qualified personnel, which has resulted in technological lag. — These factors set a ceiling for growth, regardless of the scenarios. Therefore, Venezuela's impact on prices in the coming years will be indirect and limited – says Tatiana Mitrova, an expert from the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.
Small steps
If we are not talking about a jump immediately to the level from 20 years ago, but about more real progress, then within two years a production level of 1.5 million barrels per day can be achieved (i.e. adding only 0.5 million barrels to the current production) – this is the analysts' consensus. Even to this humble achievement However, hundreds of billions of dollars of investment and political stability in the country are needed.
American companies will not return until sanctions are lifted and investors are sure that they will be able to make money in Venezuela and that there will be at least a minimum level of security, Mark Christian, director of business development at Chris Well Consulting, told Reuters.
An additional 0.5 million barrels per day this is too little to have a significant impact on oil prices on the global market. “The scale of price fluctuations will not exceed $2-3 (PLN 7.2-10.9) per barrel,” writes oil analyst Kirill Rodionov on his Telegram channel.
Experts interviewed by Nowa Gazeta believe that the dynamics of Brent oil prices in the near future will depend on the demand for the raw material from the largest economies – primarily the United States, China and India. Global investment banks are not changing their already low oil price forecasts for 2026. Currently, the average price of Brent crude oil is just over $61. (PLN 221) per barrel. This is about 22 percent. more than the value Trump dreams of.
The problem, however, is this prices will not only not fall, but also will not rise, yet often in the event of an armed conflict or instability in the country, raw materials become more expensive for suppliers. As an economist from a global bank said in an interview for Novaya Gazeta, “in the short term, until 2026, and in the narrow sense (impact on specific macroeconomic parameters), this is indeed an almost insignificant event that has little impact on forecasts, but rather confirms the lack of optimism regarding oil prices.”
However, it is unfavorable for Putin – Maduro's “patron” – and for the Russian war machine if prices remain at their current level.
A serious alarm signal for the Kremlin
The Kremlin would be very happy about expensive oil — continuing aggression against Ukraine requires large financial outlays. No wonder that the Russian Ministry of Economic Development predicts that in 2026 the average price of Brent oil will be $70-72. (PLN 253-261). However, as Rodionov writes, even if there is a renaissance in oil production in Venezuela, it will be “another factor in stabilizing prices at a relatively low level. The price of $100 (PLN 362) – in real terms – will no longer appear on the market.”
All this constitutes a serious alarm signal for the Kremlinwhich no longer has many dictatorial allies in the world, especially in the Western Hemisphere.
— The actions of the US administration are now clearly and openly aimed at “exploiting” the weak points of the Russian state – says the economist in an interview with “Nova Gazeta”.
In addition to the small number of foreign friends, Russia's high dependence on energy resources and its inability to respond to forceful actions from a larger power are problematic for Russia, the expert points out. He adds that Trump has hit these sensitive points more than once. In Venezuela, however, he hit all three at once.
— This is important because, firstly, it emphasizes that Trump is in no way pro-Russian, and secondly, that he is taking actions that could potentially limit the resources (financial, foreign policy) of the current Russian regime, concludes the economist.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
