Russia no longer has much choice and China, apart from India, is the main recipient of its oil and gas exports, which in turn is the primary source of financing for the Kremlin's aggression against Ukraine. Meanwhile, the latest data shows that exports to China are shrinking.
Trade with China, which became a lifeline for the Russian economy during the sanctions period, it fell in 2025 for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine – according to information from “The Moscow Times”.
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The website of the Chinese customs office published information about a decline in imports from Russia by 5.9%. in dollars in the first 11 months of last year up to USD 112.1 billion In November alone, imports from Russia increased by 3.4% in dollars. y/y to USD 10.8 billion
China buys less oil from Russia
According to experts from the Gaidar Institute, citing Chinese customs data, from January to November, China reduced purchases of Russian oil by 7.6%. up to 91.5 million tonswhile in monetary terms this export dropped by as much as 20%. due to falling prices and discounts.
According to “The Moscow Times”, Chinese imports of petroleum products dropped by 3%. in the case of light distillates and by 33 percent. in the case of heavy distillates. At the same time, in monetary terms, deliveries fell by 33% respectively. and 40 percent within 11 months.
Russian coal exports to China fell by 11%. in terms of volume (up to 72.4 million tons) and by 29 percent in terms of value (up to USD 6.9 billion). Wood deliveries decreased by 10% respectively. and 8.7 percent Purchases of ferrous metals plummeted, declining by 63%. up to 245 thousand tone. First of all, exports of liquefied gas (LNG) to China increased – by 12%. in terms of volume, but its value decreased by 1.8%.
Imports of gas sent via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China have increased, as well as non-ferrous metals. Imports of aluminum increased (by 95% yoy) and nickel by (52% yoy).
“Concerns in the Russian government”
In the first year of the war, Russian-Chinese trade increased by 30 percent. and increased by the same amount in 2023. In 2024, the growth rate dropped to only 2%, and in 2025, specifically in the first 11 months of last year. the exchange has already dropped.
Trade with China continues to decline despite pleas from Vladimir Putin, which Reuters reports he made during a four-day visit to Beijing in August. Agency sources report that the decline in trade with China has raised concerns within the Russian government in the face of the general deterioration of the economic situation, which after two years of military boom practically stopped developing: in November, Russia's GDP increased by only 0.1 percent. – reports “The Moscow Times”.
“Moscow's dependence on Beijing has reached such proportions that even if the Chinese economy sneezes, the Russian one risks catching a cold,” we read further. Experts from the Institute of Emerging Economies of the Bank of Finland calculated that a one percent decline in aggregate demand in China would reduce Russia's GDP by 0.1 percent. A 30 percent reduction in oil purchases by China and India would shrink the Russian economy by 1.6 percent. according to their calculations.
“New, strict sanctions only deepen the liquidity shortage. This increases the risk of a banking crisis and may lead to a recession as early as 2026.” — notes the Ukrainian website 24tv.
Russia has no money for imports
China itself has problems with American customs duties and exports to its key market are falling, and meanwhile, for the first time since the beginning of the war, deliveries of Chinese goods to Russia have also begun to decline – by 11.8%, to USD 91.7 billion. between January and November.
Car imports from China have halvedand imports of other categories of machinery and equipment by 10 percent. Russia simply has nothing to buy with, because the war is exhausting it financially.
As a result, Russia's share in Chinese exports dropped from 3.2 percent. to 2.7 percent, and Russia dropped to 9th place on the list of the largest recipients of Chinese goods.
