Investors are hunting for offices, retail parks and discount stores. Western funds are looking at Poland again

The Polish commercial real estate market is becoming more and more attractive for non-institutional players and private investors from the CEE region, but Western entities may return to the Polish market in 2026, says the consulting company JLL. The leader of the investment market in 2026 may be the office sector.

“The market has good prospects for further growth over the next 12 months. Buyers from Central and Eastern Europeincluding a strong group of private investors, encouraged by attractive returns on investments in most sectors, will be active on our market in 2026. We are also observing the first signs of the return of Western institutional actors. They are undoubtedly attracted by the wide selection of high-quality assets in Poland, especially in the face of stabilizing financing costs, as well as the fact that our country still offers competitive risk premiums compared to other European markets,” said Marcin Sulewski, Head of Office Investment, JLL Polska, quoted in the press release.

JLL reported that in 2025 offices, warehouses and retail parks were most popular on the Polish investment marketand investors bought a lot, but focused on medium and smaller projects or real estate portfolios.

Duż transaction, lower value

In the first nine months of 2025, the value of investments in Poland exceeded EUR 2.3 billion (a decrease of 9% year-on-year). However, 91 transactions were concluded during this period – the most since 2021. A large part of them were acquisitions of medium-sized office and retail assets, as well as large sale and leaseback transactions in the industrial sector, including the record purchase of two Eko Okna factories. Another big event was the signing of the preliminary sales agreement (PSPA) of the impressive Resi4Rent portfolio (5,300 premises for rent).

According to experts, in the absence of Western investment funds, the Polish market is becoming more and more attractive for non-institutional players and private investors from the CEE region.

“Although there is still relative uncertainty as to the operating conditions of global trade, the Polish economy is highly resilient thanks to its diversified structure. Our GDP growth forecasts for the coming years are also optimistic. Record-breaking investment plans – the Central Communication Port, a nuclear power plant in Pomerania, wind farms in the Baltic Sea and multi-billion euro defense projects for NATO's eastern flank will fuel Poland's economic growth for years to come. The expected dynamics of changes in the production sector may create additional opportunities for sale and leaseback transactions. These transactions provide investors with reliable, long-term sources of income and provide producers with valuable capital flexibility.

Offices dominated by Polish capital

JLL experts estimate that the volume of investment in offices in 2025 will amount to EUR 1.3-1.4 billion.

“Non-institutional investors (including private entities), companies purchasing real estate for their own use, and even public institutions started shopping. Everyone took advantage of the lack of competition and lower demand from large foreign funds. As a result, the share of Polish capital reached a record level this year, almost 40%. A large number of transactions – over 40 – combined with the positive dynamics of the leasing market in Warsaw, where we observe falling vacancies and rising rent rates in the best locations, allow us to predict that the office sector will be the leader of the investment market in the coming year,” it was written.

Warehouses and record “sale and leaseback”

The warehousing and industrial sector remains the driving force of the investment market in 2025.

“The growing average transaction value and the large number of contracts processed reflect the strengthening investor confidence in this asset class. This is supported by data on investment volumes in this sector, which from 2023 have been characterized by an annual increase of over twenty percent. JLL experts predict that in 2025 they will amount to approximately EUR 1.5 billion” – added.

According to analysts, the first quarter of 2026 may bring record results in investment volumes in the warehouse and industrial sector, and the growth dynamics of investment volumes in 2026 should increase by at least a dozen or so percentage points. Moreover, in 2026 the domination of foreign capital over domestic capital will remain at a high level.

“A noteworthy trend that has emerged this year in the industrial real estate sector is the growing popularity of sale and leaseback transactions. Both investors and companies are increasingly using this solution as an effective way to release capital from their real estate. For investors, sale and leaseback transactions are an attractive opportunity to allocate capital in projects that guarantee long-term lease and stability of cash flows. A perfect example of this trend was the record-breaking transaction in April, in which Eko Okna sold two modern factories with a total area of ​​264,000 sq m to Realty Income. This is the largest sale and leaseback agreement in the history of Central and Eastern Europe,” said Sławomir Jędrzejewski, Head of Industrial Investment CEE, JLL Polska.

Retail parks are still in demand

According to JLL, in 2025, investor activity in the retail sector continued the good streak from last year and remained at a high level, although due to the lack of acquisitions of large shopping centers, the overall volume remained at a moderate level. JLL experts estimate that Mrthis parameter will amount to EUR 800-900 million in 2025. A record 31 purchases were completed in the first nine months, matching the strong results of 2020.

“The most sought-after types of assets remain retail parks (including large portfolios) and free-standing grocery stores. These formats continue to enjoy great interest in the market, creating healthy competition, which, combined with falling interest rates, has resulted in lower capitalization rates – a positive trend that, according to our forecasts, will continue next year. The remaining finalized transactions concerned small and medium-sized shopping centers, which proves the diversified activity of investors. We have to wait until next year for transactions involving large shopping centers, but we are also seeing interest in this segment. In 2026, we expect the announcement of a larger number of portfolio transactions regarding retail parks and the entry of new investors into the market,” says Agnieszka Kołat, Head of Retail Investment, JLL Polska. (PAP Biznes)

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