From 2028, the entire budget of the Ministry of National Defense may be allocated exclusively to the current maintenance of the army and servicing the debt incurred for the purchase of new weapons – predicts Tomasz Dmitruk, an analyst at “Dziennik Zbrojny” in an interview with PAP. As a result, further modernization of the Polish army may be in serious doubt.
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In 2026, over PLN 200 billion is to be allocated to defense, which is over 4.8%. GDP and approximately 21.7 percent all state expenses.
The funds will come both from the state budget managed by the Ministry of National Defense and from the Armed Forces Support Fund (FWSZ), managed by BGK and which is to finance the technical modernization of the army.
Tomasz Dmitruk, however, points out that although the Ministry of National Defense implements almost its entire budget every year, the implementation of the spending plan from the Social Fund is far from 100%. In 2024, the implementation of expenditure from the Social Fund will amount to approximately 60-70%. plan, which means that expenses will be lower by PLN 25-30 billion.
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Army financing
The government plans to spend 3% on defense. GDP from the budget and 1.8 percent GDP from the Fund. The implementation of these plans depends, among others, on: from obtaining favorable loans for the purchase of military equipment.
An increasing part of the contracts for new equipment is financed from the Federal Military Fund, while the Ministry of National Defense budget is mainly allocated to the current maintenance of the army and debt servicing.
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The army's debt is growing. Repayment of debt may block modernization
According to Dmitruk, currently the Armament Agency – the institution responsible for the purchase of new equipment for the Polish Army – is implementing contracts worth over PLN 600 billion, of which – as he estimated – approximately PLN 150 billion is the amount already paid, and over PLN 450 billion is the amount remaining to be repaid in the coming years. In addition, he added, over 60 percent the amount remaining to be repaid is placed within the Fund. – This means that we will have to take out a debt for this purpose, which will be repaid by the Ministry of Defense from its budget in the coming years – emphasized the expert.
As he said, the Polish Ministry of Finance is of the opinion that the Ministry of National Defense should be responsible for repaying the FWSZ debt from its budget. However, the annual cost of servicing the FWSZ debt, according to the forecasts of the Supreme Audit Office, is to amount to over PLN 40 billion, starting from 2028.
In a situation where the Ministry of National Defense was to be responsible for repaying this amount, the expert explained, any further purchases of equipment for the army could be questioned, as the repayment of the debt will consume most or almost all of the funds available to the Ministry for the modernization of the army, partly from the state budget. To make further purchases possible, it will be necessary to obtain additional debt funds.
In the face of growing debt (both the state public debt of the PDP and the debt of the general government sector EDP) – which may approach the limit of 60% in the coming years. GDP for a given year – further expenditure on new equipment for the Polish Army may be questionable, as the increase in FWSZ debt has a direct impact on the increase in EDP debt.
Dmitruk, however, pointed out that the increase in state debt had so far resulted only in a relatively small part from increased defense spending. While from the beginning of 2022 to the end of the third quarter of 2025, EDP's debt increased by as much as PLN 811 billion, FWSZ's debt accounted for only 7.5%. this amount (i.e. PLN 61 billion).
Army financing. Will SAFE help?
To some extent, the situation may be saved by the EU's SAFE instrument, under which Poland may receive over EUR 43 billion for further army modernization projects. However, this money is also loans – the expert noted – which the state will have to repay sooner or later. Dmitruk estimated that the release of these funds may postpone by 2-3 years the moment when there will be no funds for further purchases of equipment, while loans from SAFE will increase the state debt (i.e. EDP) in the same way as other loans from the Fund. The advantage, however, – said the analyst – is the postponement of the commencement of capital repayment by 10 years, low interest rate and the possibility of extending repayments until 2070.
As Dmitruk said, in this situation, the Ministry of Finance will probably strive to limit further loans for military equipment under the Fund in order to keep the entire public debt in check. Dmitruk also assessed that in a situation where the Ministry of National Defense budget will be increasingly allocated to maintaining the army and servicing the debt, and the Ministry of Finance will limit the possibility of taking out new loans and will not want to spend more than 3% of the state budget on defense. GDP, further modernization of the army may be questionable.
Expansion of the Polish Army “does not seem realistic”
When asked whether the current financial prospects for the Ministry of National Defense and the army allow for the expansion of the Polish Army that is currently planned – i.e. up to 300,000. soldiers and the 6th Army Division – Dmitruk said it didn't seem real; As he estimated, at the current level of expenditure it is possible to properly equip 4 divisions of land forces, supplemented with some form of reserve structures.
According to expert estimates, the equipment required by the Polish Armed Forces until 2035, which has not yet been ordered, will cost another PLN 500 billion; this includes, for example, two more squadrons of combat aircraft, air tankers and transport planes, Sajna radars, dozens of new helicopters of various types, as well as hundreds of new combat vehicles, including Rosomaks, Badgers and more K2PL tanks.
Dmitruk also pointed out that an increasing part of the Ministry of National Defense's expenses are expenses for the current maintenance of the army. — It can be safely estimated that after 2028, the Ministry of National Defense budget will be used mainly to cover the current costs of maintaining soldiers, their food, supplies, training and pensions, as well as the costs of operating equipment, plus the costs of repaying the FWSZ debt, he said.
He assessed that such a scenario would de facto assume the suspension of military modernization. — If there is to be any development or further purchases of equipment, it will have to be covered by the Social Fund or SAFE. So again, on credit, the analyst noted.
Dmitruk, however, pointed out that the debts incurred now may prove to be less of a burden in the future than currently – in a situation in which the Polish economy and the financial capacity of the state will consistently increase. Another scenario is a hypothetical reduction of threats and stabilization of the international situation – so that large defense expenditures no longer have to be the government's priority, but the chances of this happening are slim.
