Russia and Belarus are intensifying provocations. BBN published maps of airspace violations

The events of recent months indicate that Russia and Belarus have intensified provocations in the air domain, permanently including them in their catalog of actions, the National Security Bureau assessed. For this reason, the Office has published two illustrative maps regarding airspace violations by drones and balloons from these countries.

In Wednesday's entry on the X platform, the National Security Bureau assessed that the events of the last months of 2025 indicate that Russia and Belarus “intensified provocations in the air domain, permanently including them in the catalog of actions against the Republic of Poland and other NATO countries.”

The office has published two overview maps that show incidents involving drones or balloons, including incursions into sovereign airspace or violations of no-fly zones both in Poland and other allied countries. The data covers the period from September to the end of this year.

The events of the last months of 2025 indicate that Russia and Belarus have intensified provocations in the air domain, permanently including them in the catalog of actions against the Republic of Poland and other NATO countries.

We publish two illustrative maps that show events involving… pic.twitter.com/eciHU5UhLL

— National Security Bureau | BBN (@BBN_PL) December 31, 2025

According to the first map, in the analyzed period, 16 incidents involving Russian or Belarusian drones were recorded in Poland. Nine of them took place in the Lublin Voivodeship, three in the Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship, two in the Masovian Voivodeship and one in the Łódź Voivodeship and Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. At the same time, balloons violated Polish airspace 16 times – 12 cases were recorded in the Podlaskie Voivodeship and four in the Lublin Voivodeship.

The second map shows that a significant number of incidents involving Russian and Belarusian drones and balloons also occurred in Belgium and the Netherlands. These actions were aimed at the critical infrastructure of these countries. Similar incidents were also reported in Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, France and Lithuania.

BNN emphasized that in many cases, suspicious or dangerous activity by unmanned aircraft or aerial objects took place near airports or military bases, and – as the Bureau noted – “often in countries located far west of NATO's eastern flank.”

According to the National Security Bureau, “in 2026, it should be expected that provocations in the air domain will be repeated.” Therefore – according to the BBN – “in the coming year and beyond, it is necessary to strengthen the ability of the Republic of Poland to ensure the security of our airspace and the security of critical infrastructure and military facilities.”

The office also emphasized that this strengthening “cannot be at the expense of increasing the defense potential of the Republic of Poland in other domains. (PAP)

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