ISW indicates a significant change in the war in Ukraine. Expert on the “tactical strike zone”
As Barros emphasized in an interview with PAP, the Russians are moving extremely slowly and the front line has only moved “a little”. According to him, Russian forces needed about 22 months to move nearly 32 km from their position in Avdiivka in the Donetsk Oblast to Pokrovsk. Taking over this city was the goal of the Russian command in the fall of 2024, but so far they have not captured it 100 percent.
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What tactical changes were observed in the fight in Ukraine?
How many casualties have Russian forces suffered since February 2022?
What are the estimated civilian casualties in 2025?
How do drones affect the combat tactics of both sides?
According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) from June this year, Russian forces in areas such as Kharkov advanced an average of 50 meters a day last year, which is slower than during the Somme offensive in World War I. Since January 2024, the Russians have gained about 5,000 at this rate. square kilometers, i.e. less than 1 percent. total area of Ukraine.
— So very little, and at the cost of hundreds of thousands of victims and the loss of over 1,000 armored personnel carriers and over 500 tanks. At the operational level, it was quite a strong and effective Ukrainian defense, and the Russians did not achieve any operational breakthrough, Barros said, adding that despite this, “there is a general tendency among many analysts to focus on small Russian gains of no strategic importance that the Red Army would take in one day” and predict that the front line is collapsing.
A high price for small gains
“These small territorial gains,” as CSIS analysts point out, come at a high price. In the period from February 2022 to May 2025, 250,000 people died in Ukraine. Russians, compared to about 50,000 killed in all wars between World War II and February 2022. Together with the wounded, the number of victims on the Russian side is at least 950,000. According to CSIS estimates, no Soviet or Russian war since World War II “has even come close” to Ukraine's current death rate.
The mortality rate among Ukrainian soldiers is also high and ranges from 60,000 to 100,000. killed, and the total number of victims (killed and injured) is currently 400,000, according to CSIS.
The ISW expert pointed out that over the last year there has also been a disturbing tendency to increase the number of civilian victims in Ukraine, which in his opinion is related to, among others, with a “drastic” increase in the use of drones in the past year. In one night, the Russians send up to 600 Shahid drones to civilian targets, as Barros noted.
According to data from the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) published on November 25 this year, drones and long-range missiles killed 548 civilians and injured 3,592 people in 2025, which means an increase of 26 and 75 percent, respectively, compared to the same period last year.
In total, in various bomb attacks from January to October this year. over 12,000 were killed or injured. civilians, which means a 27 percent increase in the number of victims compared to the same period in 2024 and a 67 percent increase compared to 2023.
The greatest number of civilian casualties occurred in Ukrainian cities far from the front line due to intensified Russian long-range bombing attacks. As the HRMMU report emphasizes, drones and long-range missiles killed 548 civilians and injured 3,592 people in 2025, which means an increase of 26 and 75 percent, respectively, compared to the same period last year.
Change of tactics in the war in Ukraine. “Blast Zone”
Barros pointed out that the mass use of drones on the front has also changed combat tactics. For example, the Russians managed to make “significant and disturbing” progress on the southern front line near Hulaypol, thanks to “prioritizing” specific parts of the very long (over 1,200 km) front line and “infiltration”.
As the expert emphasized, soldiers operate in a “tactical destruction zone” with a depth of 15 to 30 km. Both sides rarely try to use mechanized vehicles to penetrate their lines, because everything large is monitored by deadly drones. According to Barros, the Ukrainians have successfully prevented the Russians from using tanks and vehicles on a scale exceeding the platoon level because “the footprint of three tanks is too large and they are destroyed by drones.” As a result, very small units of only a few soldiers fight on the front, whose mission is to infiltrate enemy troops.
“They have to put on a thermal blanket to hide from infrared or thermal sensors, which means they have to move quietly, act stealthily, avoid strong enemy positions and then be able to go into action,” Barros emphasized.
Drones spread death on both sides. According to the Atlantic Council, last year approximately three-quarters of all Russian casualties were the result of Ukrainian drone operations. As Ukrainian commanders quoted by The New York Times claim, drones are currently killing more soldiers and destroying more armored vehicles in Ukraine than all traditional weapons combined, including sniper rifles, tanks, howitzers and mortars.
For example, of the 31 Abrams tanks that the United States delivered to Ukraine in 2023, 19 were destroyed, and many of them – according to “NYT” – were disabled by drones.
According to Barros, Ukrainians have a technological advantage over Russia in the production of drones, but Moscow can quickly expand their production. By 2024, Kiev has produced over a million FPV drones (First Person View is a drone controlled from the first person's perspective – ed.), but Russia claims that it may produce about 2.5-3 thousand. unmanned aerial vehicles per month.
Both countries are still increasing production, and each of them planned to produce 3-4 million drones this year, according to “NYT” data.
