Putin triumphs in communications. But what is really happening on the front in Ukraine? Cold assessment of experts [ANALIZA]
In response, the Russian leader stated that the pace of Moscow's offensive is so great that it practically “reduces to zero” Russia's interest in withdrawing Ukrainian troops from these areas.
— Judging by the pace we are currently observing, our interest in withdrawing Ukrainian military formations from the territories they occupy is effectively declining – and for completely different reasons.
Putin said.
At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense admitted that there were still Ukrainian soldiers in Kupyansk. Russia announced that they were to be “liquidated” by February next year.
Paper will accept everything, the battlefield – not necessarily. Analysts who look at the war not through the prism of declarations, but through maps and logistics, speak out. And they don't know the concept of “victory on credit”.
The Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that Russia's top political leadership is resorting to spreading false information about the alleged “major successes” of the Russian army on the front.
In fact, information from the Kremlin about the capture of Hulaypol and Myrnohrad is not confirmed by the facts
— was communicated in the SZU press release.
— The situation in Hulaypol in the Zaporizhia Oblast is difficult, but the defensive operation in the city is still ongoing. Ukrainian soldiers are conducting active operations, destroying Russian infantry groups in the city.
— The operational situation in Myrnohrad also remains difficult, but – so far – enemy units have failed to implement their plans to seize the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration.
On the brink of collapse
— We are dealing with a critical situation in Hulajpol today. It is even more dangerous than the events in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, says Aleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political expert of the “Information Counteraction” group, in an interview with Novaya Gazeta.
A significant part of Hulaypol is under the control of Russian troops. The announcement of its occupation “on credit” – that is, before the actual end of the assault – results from the belief that the actual capture of the city is only a matter of time.
– emphasizes the expert.
As Kovalenko explains, Russian armed forces fully control the part of the city located on the left bank of the Haychur River. In turn, on the right bank, the enemy introduced sabotage and reconnaissance groups into the northern part of the city, which deployed up to Shevchenko Street.
Ukrainian troops are trying to hold the western and southwestern parts of the city, but they are defending only a small fragment of the urban buildings, which makes it impossible to conduct wider maneuvers.
— The situation in Hulajpol is extremely difficult for the SZU, confirms an analyst from the independent investigative organization The Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) in an interview with Nowa Gazeta, on condition of anonymity.
It is premature to talk about the city being fully occupied by Russian troops, but in fact it is only a matter of days or weeks. Organized resistance in the city is practically non-existent.
Perhaps it will still be possible to impose the fight on the western outskirts, although this is not certain, he warns.
The analyst emphasizes that a crisis on an operational scale – rare in the case of SZ – has been going on there for several months and there are no indications to improve the situation. The actions of the Ukrainian command do not bring results, and stabilization of the front turns out to be impossible. There are even cases of loss of operational command.
According to Kovalenko, the reason for the current situation is systemic mistakes made a year earlier – primarily an incorrect assessment of the risk of Russian troops entering the Zaporozhye Oblast from the Donetsk Oblast, when the enemy was just starting its march towards Velyka Novosilka. The expert also draws attention to the terrible preparation of Hulajpol's defense.
— We cannot yet talk about full Russian control over Hulaypol, Kowalenko points out. — But the fact is that the city will be lost and its recovery like Kupiańsk will not be possible. The fall of Hulaypol will enable the enemy to create a bridgehead with access to road and rail roads and concentrate forces and resources there for the offensive against Zaporozhye. In this region, by the second half of 2026, 8-10 general armies, numbering a total of 250-300 thousand, can be gathered. soldiers, with the intention of attacking the capital of the region.
If the situation does not change, according to CIT analysts, the city of Orichiv, which is a key defense center in the southern part of the Zaporizhia Oblast controlled by SZU, may be at risk. However, it is still too early to talk about a direct threat to Zaporozhye itself – the distances are too great considering the realities of the current war. This is not a matter of the next few months.
The ring is closing
In the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, according to Alexander Kovalenko, Ukrainian troops still maintain their positions. The Ukrainians are defending the northern part of Pokrovsk, while Russian army units are in the southern districts of Myrnohrad and are trying to break into its eastern part.
Currently, the Russian army fully controls the southern part of Myrnohrad up to Dimitrov Street. At the same time, Russian infiltration groups are trying to get through Soborna Street to fortify themselves in the housing estate parallel to Matveeva Street and in the area of municipal and administrative buildings.
— Myrnohrad is defended by several hundred SZU soldiers from the airborne assault and marine brigades, as well as individual units of other brigades that failed to break through to the main forces during the retreat from the pocket east of Pokrovsk – explains the CIT analyst.
There is currently no talk of Russian troops taking full control of the city. There are both Ukrainian and Russian forces in Myrnohrad
– he emphasizes.
The positions of both sides are mixed and intense urban fighting continues. Russian aviation is actively bombing multi-story buildings, which in itself confirms the lack of full control over the city.
As Kowalenko emphasizes, the main problem of Myrnohrad's defense remains the lack of stable logistics — all roads are under enemy fire. The city's garrison is supplied mainly by heavy air and land drones.
— Ukrainian troops are supplied primarily by drones, mainly airborne ones, says a CIT analyst. — This is possible thanks to the relatively small number of soldiers in the city. Previously accumulated supplies are probably also used. There has been no reliable land connection with the city for over a month, which prevents the normal evacuation of the wounded, the rotation of troops and the transfer of reinforcements.
Evacuation is only possible in bad weather and literally one at a time – one or two people at a time – or using ground-based drones. Between the city and the area controlled by the SZU there are several kilometers of the so-called gray zone. Theoretically, it can be defeated, but in practice it almost certainly means clashes with Russian groups and drone attacks, which means losses.
The fall of Myrnohrad – according to Kovalenko – will lead to the flanking of Pokrovsk from the north-east and will enable the Russians to move towards Rodynsky, Red Liman and Hryshyn. Then attacks on Konstantynówka and Czasiw Yar will begin. As a result, further directions of attack may be opened: Dobropol, Druzhkiv and Novo Pavlovsk.
Ukrainian soldiers at an artillery position near Pokrovsk (illustrative photo)Dmytro Smolienko/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Contributor / Getty Images
— Taking Myrnohrad will not fundamentally change the situation qualitatively, says a CIT analyst. — Apart from Pokrovsk, Russia will simply gain another large city where it will be able to concentrate forces, organize logistics and deploy drone operators. Additionally, there will be a relatively safe crossing of the Kazionny Torec river for heavy equipment at Novoekonomine, which may facilitate further advances north.
— In Pokrovsk, Russian troops reached the northern outskirts of the Dinas settlement and had the opportunity to fortify themselves in the area of schools No. 4 and 6, Kovalenko adds. — There are currently fighting with Russian infiltration groups in the area of the Pokrovsk hospital nodal station, which indicates the loss of control over Dinas. The Ukrainians are attempting counterattacks to worsen the enemy's situation in the areas of his infiltration.
Negotiation strategy
Aleksandr Kovalenko reports that the main part of Kupiańska was cleared of Russian soldiers. Small groups of Russians hiding in basements and ruins in the central part of the city are gradually discovered, liquidated or taken prisoner. The Russian army is trying to transfer its soldiers to Kupiańsk, but the Armed Forces have created a buffer zone in which the enemy is effectively destroyed.
According to CIT analysts, the city of Kupiansk is currently being cleared of the remnants of Russian assault groups. It is difficult to clearly indicate completely liberated districts due to the specific nature of the fighting – finding one or two stormtroopers in dense multi-story buildings is an extremely difficult task. Most likely, Russians are concentrated in the central and northern parts of the city.
Destroyed Kupiansk (illustrative photo)Jose Colon / Anadolu/ABACAPRESS.COM, AA/ABACA/Abaca/East News / East News
However, they are cut off from the main forces, supplied only by air and with what they can find on the spot. There is no question of reinforcements or evacuation. The cleansing process may therefore take a long time. It is crucial to prevent the reconstruction of the Russian land corridor to the city.
Gerasimov's statements about “conquering” cities are an element of Russia's negotiation strategy – they are intended to create the impression of domination and significant successes on the battlefield in order to put pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky through Donald Trump and force concessions.
– says a CIT analyst.
— Meanwhile, the situation on the ground differs significantly from these declarations. From our perspective, we can say that the demands formulated by Putin do not correspond to what the Russian troops actually present on the front.
– Yes, Russia has an advantage, but it is not that significant. If we are talking about occupying the entire Donetsk Oblast, even in the most optimistic scenario for Russia, this is a task for the entire next year. And there is no certainty that they will be achieved within this time, the analyst concludes.
