Gold, the big winner of 2025. What experts say about the trends that marked the market: “Bitcoin has lost its momentum”

As we approach the end of the year, the financial world looks very different from the “soft landing” optimism that reigned in the forecasts twelve months ago. The year 2025 will go down in history not only for the return of Donald Trump to the White House, but also for the return of uncertainty and volatility in the markets, a year in which the old correlations broke down and the “deficit” issue hit the headlines.

2025 – a year of uncertainty, gold and artificial intelligence

A retrospective of the events that marked the year 2025 was included in an analysis carried out by Bogdan Maioreanu, analyst of eToro.

“In 2025, we saw one of the biggest variations in performance between asset classes in recent years. If there was a 'deal of the year,' it would undoubtedly be gold.” The price of the yellow metal is up over 71% year-to-date, really benefiting from the increased uncertainty in international trade that we've seen, driven by the US administration, high geopolitical tensions, strong demand from central banks and also investor expectations of lower interest rates.”explained the analyst.

In stark contrast, in oil markets supply has drowned out demand. Despite continued tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices have remained low, with Brent trading at around $83 a barrel at the start of the year and now hovering around $60. Excess supply has overcome geopolitical tensions, putting pressure on prices. For energy importers, this was a lifesaver; for the energy sector, an obstacle.

Stock indexes in the US, Europe, Japan and China have delivered double-digit returns this year despite sharp declines after Donald Trump's “Deliverance Day” and uncertainty over tariffs imposed by the US administration. In fact, tariff talk drove market sentiment in the first half of the year. But then the markets somehow adjusted to the situation. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones hit new all-time highs, buoyed by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and optimism that interest rates have peaked, with markets expecting them to fall as inflation eases.

While the US tech sector remained resilient, boosted by sustained investment in artificial intelligence, European indices struggled with the difficulty of complex political situations on our continent. However, the proximity of the conflict in Ukraine and the Rearm Europe program created opportunities for the giants of the European defense industry, such as Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Thales, BAE and others, and this was evident in the performance of this industry on the stock exchanges.

Decisive year for Romania's economy

In Romania, 2025 was a decisive year for the country's economy. As international bodies warned, the size of the budget deficit could no longer be ignored. The fiscal consolidation package – including painful VAT hikes and the removal of the energy price cap – sent inflation rising to 9.9% in September, a shock that eroded purchasing power. GDP growth stagnated as fiscal tightening curbed consumption.

In contrast, the BET index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) registered an increase of almost 44% compared to the beginning of the year. No wonder, according to the latest eToro Retail Investor Beat survey, 50% of individual Romanian investors have local stocks in their portfolios, while 42% have foreign stocks, 52% have crypto-assets, and three-quarters have cash, including savings accounts.

In this context, 2025 was the year Bitcoin solidified itself as an asset that can accumulate value. Although projections at the beginning of the year of $200,000 turned out to be overly optimistic, the asset has shown remarkable maturity. Trading at around $87,000 today, off a high of over $126,000, Bitcoin has moved from “digital gold” status to “institutional adoption.” But it ultimately ended up at the weaker end of the spectrum, along with the US dollar, losing ground as liquidity expectations shift and therefore risk appetite expands across global markets.

“As we head into the new year, the message from 2025 is clear: markets have rewarded quality, earnings resilience and exposure to structural themes, particularly in AI and the energy transition, and also selective opportunities in emerging markets. According to eToro Retail Investor Beat, 64% of individual Romanian investors and 56% of global investors believe that the “bull” market will continue next year. Surely in the night between years investors will want a successful 2026 in the financial markets,” the analyst added.