The year 2025 will be remembered by investors as a time when you could make a lot of money on stocks or gold, but the markets repeatedly went contrary to popular narratives. It was a time when fashionable company shares did not always give the expected results, and classic relationships underwent surprising deformations.
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On the one hand, we could observe impressive rates of return and a rapid decline in inflation, and on the other hand, political uncertainty and relatively high bond yields. At Business Insider, we asked an expert to choose the biggest market surprises of 2025 – both positive and negative.
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Summary of 2025. Positive market surprises
— The WIG index increased twice as much as the American Nasdaq, even though investors around the world were focused on artificial intelligence – this is the first of the positive surprises pointed out by Michał Szymański, president of the VIG/C-QUADRAT Investment Fund Society, in an interview with Business Insider.
In the first days of January 2025, WIG was at the level of approximately 80 thousand. pts. After 12 months, it was around 115,000. pts. That means a jump of over 40 percent. At the same time, the Nasdaq index representing the American technology sector increased by about 20 percent, and in the meantime it hit quite a deep hole (-23 percent in April compared to the beginning of January).
He points out that AI is the hottest investment topic this year, and it was almost absent from the structure of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The most significant companies listed on the WSE include banks, energy, raw materials and trade.
Another “positive” surprise for the expert was VIG/C-QUADRAT TFI the scale of the decline in interest rates and inflation in Poland. He emphasizes that this happened amid very good economic growth.
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Let us recall that at the beginning of 2025, the main interest rate at the National Bank of Poland was 5.75%. In December it was by 1.75 percentage points. lower, i.e. at 4 percent. At the same time, the rate of average price growth slowed down from 4.9 to approximately 2.5 percent. It is therefore at a level considered the best for stable economic development, and price increases are not burdensome for citizens.
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In turn, the economy was accelerating for most of the year – annual GDP growth in the first quarter was 3.2 percent, and in the next two quarters it increased to 3.4 and 3.8 percent, respectively.
Summary of 2025. Negative market surprises
— The scale of uncertainty and volatility generated by American politics — this is one of the four main negative surprises mentioned by Michał Szymański. He specifies that he means, among others: customs war and war in Ukraine.
The US tariff policy had an impact on the increase in inflation through, among others, increasing costs in supply chains. Experts indicate that it will slow down overall GDP growth. UN forecasts also warned that the global trade war could prevent the creation of up to 7 million jobs in the world.
The president of VIG/C-QUADRAT TFI also draws attention to the Polish debt market and what has happened there in the last 12 months. — The yield on Polish 10-year treasury bonds (the long end of the interest rate curve) remains above 5%. despite the sharp decline in interest rates and inflation — this is another negative surprise indicated by the expert.
It must be admitted, however, that in January the yield on 10-year bonds exceeded 6% for a while, and in December it was 0.7 percentage point higher. lower. So there was a decline, but it is still far from the levels from years ago.
Yield of 10-year bonds
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For the state, the lower the yield on 10-year bonds, the better, because it means a lower cost of servicing public debt. Yield, simply put, is the interest rate the government has to pay investors on borrowed money, so when it falls, the budget spends less on interest. The state benefits directly from this, saving billions of zlotys which, instead of going to lenders' pockets, can be used for other expenses, such as investments or public services. Additionally, low profitability proves investors' high confidence in the Polish economy and the country's financial stability, which attracts foreign capital.
“With a few exceptions, no net purchases into equity funds despite a spectacular boom on both domestic and foreign stock markets” – this is another surprise mentioned by our interlocutor.
In addition, he adds “dollar weakness despite the global AI boom dominated by American companies“. Over the following months of 2025, the value of the dollar in the Polish currency decreased. In January, it even reached PLN 4.15, and from March it permanently dropped below PLN 4. The last few months have seen exchange rate fluctuations in the range of PLN 3.60-3.70. Currently, it is closer to the lower limit.
Market surprises in 2025. Lesson for the future
The year 2025 showed that financial markets can also reward those who think independently of the dominant narratives. The Polish stock exchange without a more important AI component or falling rates amid solid economic growth have shown how unpredictable the financial market is. If this year has taught us anything, it is humility towards simple stories and openness to the fact that market reality is almost always more complex than it may seem at first glance.
Author: Damian Słomski, journalist of Business Insider Polska
