ING more dovish than PKO BP and Pekao. How low will rates go in 2026?

Economists from PKO BP and Bank Pekao expect interest rates to be reduced by a total of 0.5 points in 2026. percent According to ING Bank Śląski analysts, rate reductions of 0.75 percentage points can be expected in 2026.

In 2025, the Monetary Policy Council reduced interest rates six times. As a result, the reference rate, i.e. the most important rate of the National Bank of Poland, dropped from 5.75 percent. to 4 percent, i.e. by 1.75 percentage points. Bank economists interviewed by PAP expect interest rate cuts to continue in 2026, but the scale of the reduction will be much smaller.

PKO BP: Quick downward movement and stabilization

– We expect that already in the first quarter of 2026, the Monetary Policy Council will decide to reduce interest rates by another 50 basis points, and from the second quarter of 2026, the NBP reference rate will remain at the target level – in our opinion – of 3.5%. – PKO BP economist Kamil Pastor told PAP. – The main reason behind the rate cuts will be the continued decline in inflation – at the beginning of 2026 to approximately 2.5%. on an annual basis, after which the downward trend should turn into stabilization. At the same time, GDP dynamics will remain similar to this year's (3.5%), and the main imbalance will be the fiscal one, he added.

He emphasized that deeper reductions are possible if, for example, there is a significant drop in oil prices, which may translate into a strengthening of the zloty. Another factor that may deepen the scale of reductions will be an even stronger disinflationary impact of imports from China.

Pekao: A short pause and then cuts

– We do not see any significant macroeconomic arguments for a pause in interest rate cuts. However, we must take into account the very clear forward guidance message (announcement regarding future monetary policy – PAP), which was formulated by the President of the NBP at the press conference after the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Council – despite his usual reluctance to announce the Council's next moves. Following this indication, a short pause in reductions can be expected in the first months of 2026, followed by a return to cuts. We maintain our forecast that the reference rate will reach the target level of 3.5%. sooner rather than later – certainly in the first half of 2026 – Bank Pekao economist Kamil Łuczkowski told PAP.

He emphasized that the conditions for further easing of monetary policy in Poland remain “very favorable.” In his opinion, the forecasted inflation path is stable and close to the inflation target of the National Bank of Poland (it is 2.5% +/- 1 percentage point). He added that the weakening wage pressure limits the growth of service prices, which have so far decreased the slowest.

ING: The greatest optimism and a target of 3.25%.

– In 2026, we expect three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each – in March, May and September. As a result, the reference rate will be reduced to 3.25%. – ING Bank Śląski economist Adam Antoniak told PAP. – The main reason for further cuts is the improving inflation outlook. We believe that average annual inflation will be below 2.5%. and the inflation path we forecast is lower than expected by the NBP – he added.

He emphasized that he expected that energy prices would not increase and that gas prices might even be reduced. He emphasized that food prices are favorable due to large global grain stocks after a successful harvest. In addition, commodity prices are low, the US dollar remains weak, and imports from China are putting additional downward pressure on commodity prices. (PAP)

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