Since its defeat at Kiev and retreat in 2022, Russia has failed in four strategic goals: political destabilization of Ukraine, economic and energy exhaustion, division of society, and erosion of international support. The only thing that remains for the Russian Federation is the presence of its army in part of the Ukrainian territories. However, at the front Russia did not achieve its goals. The Russian economy is weakened, the army is suffering heavy losses, and the regime and elites exist only thanks to a war fueled by ideological propaganda. That is why 2026 will be the year of hybrid escalation,” Kovalenko noted.
He emphasized that the illegitimate president of the aggressor country, Russia, Vladimir Putin, does not know what peace is if we are not talking about the “surrender of Ukraine,” which will not happen. Therefore, he considers continued escalation inevitable for the Russian Federation under any scenario.
Kovalenko wrote that in 2026 Russia will act in several directions.
- Sabotage – attacks (sabotage) against the European defense industry, logistics and arms supply chains to Ukraine.
- Disinformation and cognitive warfare are the maximum pressure in elections in Europe, particularly in Hungary, and in the US elections.
- Coercion and intimidation – systematic military demonstrations, violations of air and sea space, nuclear rhetoric, etc.
Europe has still not built a full containment of hybrid attacks and is “avoiding reality,” Kovalenko emphasized.
“The strategic choice of the West is simple – to double the pressure if the Putin regime chooses war. Limitation of the Russian military-industrial complex if the Russian Federation chooses peace. The formula in which [нелегитимный президент страны-агрессора России Владимир] Putin hides behind peace and continues militarization, guaranteeing an even greater war over time. Putin is betting that the West is not ready to punish Russia below the threshold of Art. 5 [НАТО]. 2026 will provide an understanding of whether Europe has learned this lesson – or whether the Kremlin will try to break the West hybridly where it failed militarily. And then he will launch a new attack on Europe,” the head of the Center for Operations emphasized.
