While President Volodymyr Zelensky prepares for tense diplomatic talks in Berlin, the capitals of Western countries are preparing for a clash that could change the course of the war in Ukraine.
The stakes are high. Kyiv is pressing for solid security guarantees. European leaders, in turn, fear too much involvement in the conflict, while trying to maintain the cohesion of the divided alliance. In his speech on Saturday evening, Zelensky showed pragmatism and cautious optimism.
Although Kyiv is counting on a “political agreement ending the war”, it is already visible sharp differences between Ukraine's closest allies.
— We are currently preparing for meetings with the American side and our European friends, Zelensky said, presenting the agenda for the Berlin talks. It is intended to cover the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine, its long-term reconstruction and the basis for a peace agreement. He also said that meetings with US envoys and European leaders are crucial to this process and could be a “significant” opportunity to change the course of the war.
Safety guarantees in focus
The basis of Kiev's negotiating position is the repeated demand for “real security guarantees” that will deter future Russian aggression.
— Security guarantees are the glue that binds these talks. Without a credible, enforceable framework, legally binding and supported by Europe and the United States, Ukraine is being asked to exchange blood for symbolism. This won't pass in Kiev a senior Western diplomat said anonymously.
On the Ukrainian side, work on the new security architecture is to be led by Rustem Umerov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, appointed by Zelensky to present information on the progress of the negotiations.
Envoys from the US, divisions in Europe
Zelensky's meetings with Trump's envoys, including U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, underscore Washington's key role in reaching a peace agreement — even despite continuing tensions in bilateral relations.
A senior US official with ties to Trump's team expressed cautious optimism. — The meeting in Berlin is an opportunity to agree and refine [wspólnego stanowiska]rather than resolving old disputes. President Trump's team of envoys is committed to exploring what a framework for peace might look like — but it must be based on achievable steps, he said.
Western diplomats say the meeting will discuss three main issues: a ceasefire action plan, security guarantees and the reconstruction of Ukraine.
A senior European official highlighted potentially problematic issues. — Europe supports Ukraine's goals. However, there are real questions about the prospects for accession [Ukrainy] to the EU, the scope of the guarantee and possible concessions. “We are committed to ensuring that this is not just a US-driven scenario that ignores European security interests,” he said.
High stakes
The territorial status of certain lands, especially Donbas, undoubtedly remains a contentious issue that may hinder reaching a peace agreement.
Russia demands that Ukraine withdraw from there, while Washington proposes compromises, such as the creation of a free economic zone there. However, all these proposals were rejected by Kyiv.
— Territorial integrity versus ending active hostilities is a zero-sum debate for Ukraine. And its partners disagree on what compromise would be acceptable. This is a problem that Kiev's European allies cannot deal with, a senior Western official said.
German authorities confirmed that a larger meeting of NATO and EU leaders would be held after the talks with Zelensky. This reflects Berlin's desire to shape a pan-European response to both the war and the post-war order.
For Zelensky, the principles of action are clear: present a united front, ensure binding security guarantees and preserve sovereign territory while maintaining cooperation with Western partners.
This will be a test for European and American officials — will it be possible to reach a real agreement before the end of the year, or will the deepening divisions make it impossible and the world's attention will turn in another direction?
