Reactions to the decisions of Americans and Swiss. The dollar is weaker, the franc is stronger

On Thursday, on the currency market, investors assessed the impact of the Fed's decision to cut interest rates in the US and the SNB's decision to keep rates in Switzerland at 0%. The zloty looked better compared to the dollar and was losing against the franc. The euro and pound rates were stable.

The EUR/PLN exchange rate was PLN 4.2300 on Thursday at 10 a.m. and was gaining less than 0.1 percent. compared to Wednesday's closing, which was PLN 4.2268. The euro-zloty pair has been consolidating for several weeks in the lower limit of the sideways trend that has been ongoing since April in the range of PLN 4.2250 – PLN 4.30.

“The situation on the euro-zloty pair resembles the diplomatic struggle to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. In both cases, the market has been counting on some kind of resolution for months. And the more it hopes, the more it does not come. However, this does not mean that at some point we will not experience a breakthrough. Both diplomatic and currency, which in the case of the Polish zloty is closely related,” commented Krzysztof Kolany, chief analyst at Bankier.pl.

“We assume that the EUR/PLN exchange rate will remain close to the lower limit of the current consolidation, near 4.22, and the USD/PLN exchange rate has a chance to break the support at 3.60 if the further moderate global depreciation of the dollar we expect persists,” PKO BP economists forecast.

There was a bit more activity on the dollar exchange rate after the Fed cut interest rates in the US by 25 bp, just as the market expected. However, new macroeconomic projections indicate moderate optimism, which predicts only symbolic rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 and on a smaller scale than previous forecasts suggested. After the decision, the EUR/USD rate rose above 1.17 as a result of the weakening of the dollar.

In pairs with the Polish zloty, the USD/PLN exchange rate even dropped below PLN 3.61. On Thursday, it slightly made up for this decline and was at PLN 3.6182, but it was still 2 groszy lower than Wednesday's maximum before the Fed's decision. In the pair with the euro, the dollar also recovered slightly and the EUR/USD rate was at $1.1691.

The focus was on the Swiss franc, which was related to Thursday's decision of the Swiss National Bank, which decided not to introduce negative interest rates. After the decision, the franc strengthened against the euro and the EUR/CHF exchange rate was at 0.9344. Let us remind you that several years of low rates are at 0.9180. Together with the zloty, the franc cost PLN 4.5247, which is almost one and a half grosz more than at the same time on Wednesday. The pound was stable, the rate of which was PLN 4.8330 on Thursday morning and was almost at the same level as 24 hours earlier.

MKu

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