GDP growth in 2026 will accelerate to 3.7%. from 3.5 percent in 2025, and in 2027 it will slow down to 2.4%. – say Grant Thornton analysts.
“If the 'black swan landing' does not prevent us from doing so, 2026 should bring further dynamics of economic growth. GDP growth will slightly accelerate to approximately 3.7%. rdr. Inflation will stabilize around the Monetary Policy Council's target of 2.5%. The Monetary Policy Council will reduce rates to 3.50%. 2026 promises to be a solid year – but watch out for a likely slowdown in 2027,” the report said.
The analysis shows that growth will be supported by two pillars: private consumption, the dynamics of which will be on average slightly lower than in 2025, mainly due to the slowdown in wage growth – and investments, to some extent “guaranteed” by the rising wave of inflow of EU funds in 2025 – 2026 will bring the culmination of this wave.
Looking at the dynamics of GDP growth itself and its stability around 3.5%. one might conclude that 2026 will be quite “boring.” We would probably wish for this type of “boredom” as much as possible and for as long as possible – but it is worth noting the dark clouds on the growth horizon in the coming years, when in all probability the growth will be in the range of 2-3%. (with periods below) than 3-5%, which we have become accustomed to and consider as “natural” – it was written.
According to analysts, firstly, we will be increasingly limited by demography and “lack of labor.”
“This factor will translate into pressure for higher wages – but in the face of external competition, this will mean the weakening competitiveness of many domestic companies,” it was written.
Lower potential for non-inflationary production growth
Subsequently, the low level of private sector investment in the last decade suggests a lower potential for non-inflationary production growth than in countries that invested more in fixed assets.
Finally, high public spending and growing debt will mean, firstly, the need to reduce spending (which means weaker demand and growth in the short term), and secondly, the increase in the costs of servicing the increasingly growing “mountain of debt” will push out more development-oriented spending.
From the perspective of the end of 2025, forecasting 2026, 2027 and looking further into the future, it can be argued that 2026 may be the culmination of the growth rate, which has been accelerating since several previous years. From this point of view, this may be a good year for preparing corporate finances for less favorable conditions in the following years – it was written.
The authors of the report write that as far as the currency is concerned, the first part of 2026 will probably bring further strengthening of the zloty, especially against the American currency, at a pace that is probably slower than before, but still pushing the USD/PLN exchange rate to new multi-year lows.
“However, if changes aimed at reducing the public finance deficit in our country are not undertaken, financial markets may feel concerned and start valuing the zloty slightly lower in the second half of 2026. 2026 may turn out to be a year of slowing down the zloty appreciation trend. However, this is not certain – a lot will depend on the international situation, but also, for example, on the willingness of the private sector in Poland to invest,” it was written.
Inflation decline gives the Monetary Policy Council room to cut interest rates
The report stated that, contrary to concerns from the beginning of 2025, the first quarter of 2025 did not break the 5% level. consumer inflation, and the following months saw it drop below 3%, while November 2025 brought a drop just below the Monetary Policy Council's inflation target (2.5%), to 2.4%.
“This decline in inflation to the target already in 2026 opens the way to stabilization of inflation around the target for most of 2026, which in turn gives the Monetary Policy Council “room” to cut interest rates,” it wrote.
Grant Thornton says that when looking at inflation in the long term, the first thing we should monitor in our country is wages.
Despite the weakening pressure in this area, it will still be noticeable and will have a strong impact on the prices of services, but also on an increase in production costs. In the international context, the following will be important, among others: geopolitical issues (high tariffs on Chinese goods in the US will encourage China to look for markets elsewhere, even at the expense of margins – it was written.
The authors of the report write that as far as 2026 is concerned, it can be assumed that this rate will be reduced quite quickly (first quarter) to 3.50%, as inflation remains around the NBP inflation target. Real interest rate of 1 percentage point. seems to be a rational assumption – so the NBP reference rate will probably remain at this level for a long time. (PAP Business)
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