“With further sanctions, this time can be shortened,” says Gabuyev in an interview for “Handelsblatt.” In addition to the oil industry giants – Rosneft and Lukoil – there are also smaller oil and raw material producers in Russia that have not been subject to sanctions so far.
Gabuyev, who was a long-time journalist of the Russian economic daily Kommersant, is considered one of the leading experts on Russian foreign policy. In his opinion, only one move can make Putin make concessions.
According to Gabuyev, although US President Donald Trump wants to end the war, so far he has exerted almost no pressure on the Kremlin.
“Therefore, the Russians believe that they still have time and can further delay the negotiations,” says the expert. In his opinion, Putin still insists on “very far-reaching demands” that he does not want to abandon. The analyst recently commented in a similar tone in an article for “Die Welt”.
According to the expert, for the war to become unprofitable for Putin, economic sanctions should be tightened and the adopted punitive measures should be more strictly enforced. Gabuyev gives an example: China, India or the United Arab Emirates should no longer buy Russian oil with impunity or bypass sanctions.
“It has to be done every day and very consistently [przestrzegać sankcji]. So far, this is not happening enough,” he adds.
“The situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is deteriorating”
The expert says this will not increase the pressure on Putin enough for Russia to surrender in the next three to six months. In his opinion, however, if Ukraine continues to receive support in the form of weapons and financial assistance at the same time, this period can at least be shortened to less than 18 months.
Russia's financial problems are evidenced by the fact that the Russian authorities plan to increase VAT next year. The rate is to increase to 22%. According to analysts, this will hamper the functioning of enterprises that are already struggling with the need to operate in an increasingly difficult national environment for Russia.
“A significant burden of paying additional tax liabilities will fall on the population,” say experts from the RAN Institute of Economic Forecasts in a report.
However, German military expert Carlo Masala, in response to a question from “Bild”, is less optimistic than Gabuyev when it comes to the Russian Federation's further capabilities to wage war.
— I am very careful with such forecasts that provide specific time frames. No one is currently able to say with certainty what financial and political reserves Russia can still – or wants to mobilize – says the expert.
Carlo Masala, professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University in MunichBen Kriemann/Stringer/Getty Images
Masala also warns against “drawing hasty conclusions” about the alleged moment when Moscow “will have no more money.” Much depends on factors “that we cannot sufficiently assess from the outside.”
Although there are more and more frequent reports of a sharp increase in Russian public debt, huge inflation and food and fuel shortages, so far this has not had a major impact on the situation in Ukraine. “Unfortunately, the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is deteriorating,” Gabuyev admits.
For this reason too, Putin is convinced that time is on his side.
