According to a study conducted by experts from the Norwegian Institute of International Relations (NUPI), a Russian victory over Ukraine would have serious consequences for Europe – in the form of an influx of 6 to 11 million refugees from Ukraine, but also an increase in instability in the region.
Analyst Timothy Garton Ash, quoted by the German daily “Frankfurter Rundschau”, warns that Moscow's victory would be a diplomatic disaster and would contribute to the creation of a “new world order” in favor of Russia, who would stop at nothing to achieve it. The expert also noted that Moscow's triumph could encourage China to increase pressure on Taiwan and intensify North Korea's provocations against South Korea.
In his analysis for the European Council on Foreign Relations, he wrote about the “shadow of the dark year 2025” that continues to grow. He stated that if Russia wins Europe would suffer greater financial losses than previously thought. Putin's success on the front would bring the EU and NATO to the brink of financial ruin.
According to calculations by experts from the Norwegian Institute of International Relations (NUPI), a Ukrainian victory would cost the European Union approximately EUR 1.2 trillion (PLN 5.1 trillion) over the next four years, while a Russian victory would cost EUR 1.8 trillion (PLN 7.6 trillion).
In the former case, defense costs would fall and funds intended to help refugees would be redirected to their repatriation. Military spending would remain unchanged at a high level.
Ukraine's military needs necessary for victory
Recently, US President Donald Trump shocked European capitals with an ultimatum to Kiev – he stated that it either accept Washington's plan to end the war or lose US arms supplies and access to intelligence information. This plan, thanks to the intervention of Ukraine and Europe, was then modified and was no longer as pro-Russian as in the original version, but still posed a threat to Kiev.
The key question is: Can Ukraine continue to fight without American weapons? To answer briefly – yes, but with great difficulties. To achieve victory, Kiev would need: 1,500–2,500 battle tanks, 2,000–3,000 artillery systems, approximately 8 million drones of various types, air defense systems and strategic missiles.
Norwegian specialists have estimated that if nothing changes, Ukraine may receive this equipment from European allies within a year or two.
Russian arms control
Nearly four years after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia's economy relies largely on the military-industrial complex, and Moscow continues to produce military equipment at an accelerated pace. In 2025, it produced three times as many artillery shells as before the war and doubled tank production.
Moreover, according to Norwegian specialists, one in five Russian workers is employed in the arms industry. What is disturbing is that Moscow produces more weapons than it uses on the Ukrainian front.
Experts from the Belgian think tank Bruegel estimate that “Germany and Europe as a whole will need decades to keep up with Russia's current weapons production.” The EU arms industry is struggling with several problems. There is only one active battle tank production line in Europe (Leopard 2). Current production is about 50 tanks a year, up from 300 during the Cold War. Many European countries are also struggling with difficulties in modernizing their tank fleets.
A Russian victory would therefore have disastrous consequences for the security and stability of Europe, entailing huge human and financial costs in the long run. “Frankfurter Rundschau” highlights the need for a coordinated approach at European level to meet this major geopolitical challenge.
