The Polish economy grew faster in the third quarter than first estimates showed. GDP is growing at the fastest rate in three years, and growth is finally supported by investments. The latest data from the Central Statistical Office showed what else the Polish economy was based on in the previous quarter.
The Central Statistical Office confirmed that in the third quarter of 2025, Poland's gross domestic product was realistically (i.e. after taking into account inflation) 3.8%. higher compared to the same period last year. This is even more than the 3.7 percent shown. in the first preliminary estimate.
The strongest annual growth of the Polish economy in three years has become a fact. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the dynamics amounted to 0.9 percent, also more than 0.8 percent. in the first reading.
Accelerating GDP growth
It was also the fourth consecutive quarter of growth in Poland's annual GDP growth above 3%. As a reminder, let us mention that in the second quarter the Polish economy grew at a rate of 3.3 percent, and in the first quarter GDP increased by 3.2 percent. The end of last year brought an increase of 3.5%. Therefore, we have a gently accelerating economic growth of 3-4%, which economists consider a pace consistent with the long-term potential of the Polish economy.
However, in the opinion of others, the economy is producing less than it could. “Despite the fastest GDP growth in the EU, Poland has a negative output gap, similar to that in Germany or Italy. In our opinion, the output gap would explain many phenomena: lack of inflationary pressure, stagnation in the labor market, slow start of private investments,” noted Pekao economists.
It's not very intuitive, but despite the fastest GDP growth in the EU, Poland has a negative output gap (the economy produces less than it could) similar to that in Germany or Italy. In our opinion, the output gap would explain many phenomena: lack of inflationary pressure,… pic.twitter.com/MSt384k4t7
— Pekao Analyzes (@Pekao_Analizy) November 28, 2025
GDP growth is finally also based on investments
Today, the Central Statistical Office presented the structure of GDP growth and the impact of individual categories on the aggregate data shown. It follows from them that consumption weakened slightly, adding 2 percentage points to the annual and unseasonally adjusted dynamics of this indicator compared to 2.6 percentage points. For comparison, in the previous quarter it was 2.6 points. percent Government spending clearly increased, adding 1.5 points. percent after they contributed only 0.5 points a quarter earlier. percent and 0.3 percentage points in the first quarter. Total consumption added 3.5 points. percent vs. 3.1 points percent previously.
It can be said that investments have finally accelerated. For the first time since the fourth quarter of 2023, gross fixed capital formation added more than 1 percentage point. to the annual dynamics. While a quarter earlier, investments subtracted 0.1 point from GDP. percent, now they have added as much as 1.1 points. percent Only inventories had a negative impact, reducing the increase by 1 point. percent In turn, exports abroad added 0.2 points. percent
In addition to the composition itself, it is also worth taking a look at the non-seasonally adjusted dynamics of individual GDP components. Thus, in the third quarter, domestic demand increased by 3.7%. y/y, with consumption in the household sector increasing by 3.5%. Gross expenditure on fixed assets, i.e. investments, increased by 7.1%. The investment rate (the ratio of gross fixed capital formation to gross domestic product at current prices) was 16.4%. compared to 15.8 percent a year earlier.
“The structure is surprising again (…). The data does not change the full-year forecast (3.6 percent in 2025), but it should slightly shift the emphasis. More investments, less consumption,” Pekao analysts commented on X.
🇵🇱 Poland's GDP in the third quarter increased by 3.8% y/y (slightly faster than in the first estimate), but its structure is surprising again:
🔹private consumption increased by only 3.5% (it was supposed to be 4.5% y/y)
🔹public consumption added 1.5 points. percent for growth, not much is known… pic.twitter.com/r0hHiE1VSC— Pekao Analyzes (@Pekao_Analizy) December 1, 2025
“As we expected, investments in Q2 recorded an accident at work, and the data for Q3 only confirm this. The momentum of investments should be fast and non-linear, as usual,” noted experts from mBank.
As we expected, investments in Q2 were somewhat of an accident at work, and the data for Q3 only confirm this. The investment momentum should be fast and non-linear, as usual. pic.twitter.com/ZSHYQ34Wpe
— mBank Research (@mbank_research) December 1, 2025
Michal Kubicki
