According to Washington's announcements, from Monday the United States is treating the so-called Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization. This is a term that experts have used to describe the network of corrupt officers of the Venezuelan armed forces for years related to drug smuggling.
The formal inclusion of this structure on the list of terrorist organizations automatically also includes Maduro and his immediate circle.
President Trump is gaining now additional possibilities to impose sanctions on assets and infrastructure related to the Venezuelan authorities. This is one of the most serious instruments in the Department of State's arsenal – usually used against groups such as Al-Qaeda. Lawyers emphasize that this step alone does not give the White House an automatic green light to use military force, but politically and operationally it significantly lowers the threshold for more aggressive action.
The US wants to fight cartels more effectively
Cartel de los Soles is not a classic drug cartel with one command structure. Experts describe it as a loosely connected, decentralized network of factions within the Venezuelan armed forces and state apparatus that are expected to profit from drug trafficking and other illegal operations.
Maduro's government has consistently denied both the existence of the cartel itself and accusations of the president's personal involvement in drug smuggling. Some analysts even emphasize that Cartel de los Soles is more of a journalistic label than a coherent organization in the classic sense. This makes Washington's decision even more controversial.
Meanwhile the Trump administration is clearly trying to use the new legal qualification as a springboard to further escalate pressure. White House officials say that including the Cartel de los Soles on the list of terrorist organizations gives the US “expanded military options” in terms of potential strikes on Venezuelan territory, CNN reports.
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The president was to be familiarized by his highest-ranking advisors with a range of possible scenarios: from attacks on selected military and government targets, through special forces operations, to maintaining the status quo and continuing to limit himself to sanctions and diplomatic pressure.
A serious military operation is taking place in the background. Operation Southern Spear operates in the region under the aegis of the Pentagon – an extensive campaign officially aimed at drug cartels and illegal trafficking routes. To the surrounding area Venezuela over a dozen warships and about 15,000 soldiers. As part of anti-smuggling activities, American forces have already carried out a number of attacks on boats, in which dozens of people suspected of involvement in the drug trade have died.
The vast majority of Americans do not want to engage in another foreign intervention. The CBS News/YouGov poll shows that as many as 70 percent respondents oppose the use of military force in Venezuela, while 30 percent supports such actions. Moreover, 76 percent respondents believe that the Trump administration has not provided sufficient explanation so far make clear your position on possible intervention. The political cost of escalation could therefore be high for the White House, especially in an election year.
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The official position of the administration
Officially, Washington maintains that the aim of the operation is to limit illegal flows of drugs and migrants. But even U.S. officials acknowledge that a potential side effect could be regime change in Caracas. The strategy assumes that the combination of sanctions, military pressure and diplomatic isolation will weaken Maduro's power enough for him to step down without the need for a full-scale intervention.
At the same time, Trump is trying to leave the door open for talks. He recently said that Maduro “would like to talk,” then he suggested that he would also be ready for such a meeting at the appropriate moment. This is a classic game on two fronts – on the one hand, demonstrating strength and readiness for a tough confrontation, and on the other hand, a message to the international community that a diplomatic solution is still on the table. The White House has not yet commented in detail on the status of a possible Trump-Maduro conversation.
Tension in the region is constantly growing. Last Thursday, the United States conducted its largest show of force near Venezuela since the crisis began. For several hours, at least six US aircraft appeared in the airspace over the waters off its coast, including an F/A-18E supersonic fighter, a B-52 strategic bomber and reconnaissance planes. It's clear a signal to both Caracas and allies in the region that the U.S. military is ready to move quickly into action.
The concern also spreads to the civilian sector. After the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warned of a potentially dangerous situation in the airspace over Venezuela, three international airlines canceled flights departing from that country.
The formal recognition of Maduro and his associates as members of a foreign terrorist organization brings the conflict between Washington and Caracas into a new phase. From a political dispute about the nature of the regime and human rights violations, it is becoming part of a broader war on terrorism, waged by the US for two decades.
