— I am very much against talking about the decline in fertility as a crisis or a catastrophe. This is part of the long-term demographic change that we have been observing in Poland since the late 1980s. – emphasizes Dr. Hab. Krzysztof Tymicki, sociologist, demographer and social researcher from the Warsaw School of Economics. The expert explains that there are no sudden changes in demography. Change is slow, predictable and consistent. Poland is not entering a crisis – it is simply entering the next stage of demographic transformation.
— Fertility in Poland has been falling continuously since 1989, when it last exceeded the level of simple replacement of generations, which was 2.1. Over the course of three decades, the average age at giving birth to the first child has increased from 22–23 years to almost 30 years. This is not a Polish anomaly, but a continuation a trend observed in most developed countries. The key is the pace of change – exceptionally fast in Poland – he adds.
What the data says about our demographics
In 2024, only 252,000 were born in Poland. children – by 53 thousand less than two years earlier. In 2023, the population of Poland was 37,637 thousand, almost 130 thousand. less than a year earlier.
The forecasts are even more alarming. According to Eurostat's projection, our population will decrease by approximately 3 million and reach 34.6 million in 2050. At the same time, the share of people aged 65+ will increase from 19.9%. in 2023 to 29.1 percent in 2050
Poland is no exception in Europe – fertility is falling in most countries on the continent. After 2022, the declines in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia deepened particularly significantly. Experts link this to geopolitical instability and the war in Ukraine.
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What really influences reproductive decisions?
Ph.D. Piotr Szukalski from the University of Łódź explains that the way of thinking about a good life has changed. — Young Polish women define success completely differently than our grandmothers. It's not just a partner and children, but a career, personal development and independence. The emancipation of women is of particular importance, she explains. Dr. Szukalski also draws attention to the structural problem related to migration and gender imbalance.
Education is also important. Women today are better educated than men, and most people are still looking for a partner with a similar social and educational status.
Moreover, the 500+/800+ program did not bring the expected results. — Money may support decisions about having another child, but it does not trigger the first one. Having children is largely about the ability to compromise and give up other life goals, adds Krzysztof Tymicki.
Crisis of confidence and fears about the future
Prof. Ph.D. Irena E. Kotowska, member of the Government Population Council and Honorary Chairwoman of the Committee for Demographic Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences, emphasizes that the lack of housing is only part of the puzzle. — The decision to have the first or second child is also influenced by the costs of education and health, as well as deterioration access to public servicesespecially protecting children's mental health – he points out. Not only the cost of upbringing is increasing, but also parents' aspirations regarding the quality of life and development of the child. This makes it parenting becomes a “high-risk project”especially in conditions of poor system support.
The expert also pays attention to reproductive health. — Restrictions in access to infertility diagnosis and treatment had a real impact on the birth rate. The effects of the in vitro program show how great the demand for these services is.
Prof. Kotowska also emphasizes the role of trust in state institutions. — The 2020 judgment of the Constitutional Tribunal and the crisis of confidence in women's health care have undermined the sense of security – crucial for making long-term commitments such as family – he explains.
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An economic model that requires revision
The key to understanding the demographic panic is an outdated economic growth model. — The Polish model still uses the 19th-century idea that the more of us, the better. This is thinking inherited from Malthus, who claimed that you need a lot of people to deal with all problems – explains Krzysztof Tymicki.
The expert points out that Poland thinks about the economy as if work was an infinite resource. Meanwhile, this model has exhausted itself – automation and artificial intelligence may, over time, make development independent of the number of inhabitants. — The question is: do we still really need that many people? It may be worth considering more effective use of existing labor resources – suggests.
Positive effects of population decline?
Krzysztof Tymicki points out the potential benefits of demographic change that are not talked about. — The situation on the housing market will improve, the availability of allotment houses will increase – you will be able to buy a house outside the city for a reasonable price. Air pollution will drop, which reduces the risk of a climate catastrophe, he enumerates.
The expert also draws attention to opportunities in education. Reducing the number of students in schools may become an opportunity to reform the system. — Classes will not be as large as today. This is a chance to finally change something in the education system, he emphasizes.
Adaptation instead of panic
— This whole discussion in Poland is turned on its head. We should not only think about how to increase the fertility rate what to do to maintain a certain level of economic development in the new reality – argues Dr. Tymicki.
— Every great social change was declared a disaster until it became the norm. We cannot reverse this trend, we can only adapt to the new reality. And the sooner we realize this need to adapt, the better for us, he adds.
What should family policy look like?
Can pro-family policy reverse the trend? According to Krzysztof Tymicki, there is no simple recipe for increasing fertility. All we can do is create optimal conditions that will make it easier for people to decide to have a child.
Prof. Irena Kotowska believes that Polish family policy requires a thorough reconstruction. — In Poland, the model based on cash transfers still dominates, while the key services are: reproductive health, education, care, support for families with children with special needs. We need a coherent system that reduces both the direct and indirect costs of parenthood, he emphasizes.
— I'm sure people will want to have children – it's still a strong instinct. But if someone doesn't have them, they really have serious reasons for it. You cannot label a twenty-something as a soulless egoist, emphasizes Krzysztof Tymicki.
