After the third quarter results, an analyst from the Pekao Brokerage House maintained a positive recommendation for the shares of one of the companies from my portfolio. However, it reminds us of a significant risk.
We are moving in the direction we wanted to go, especially in terms of EBITDA, strong cash flows and acquiring new contracts. With lower revenues, we are able to generate a higher EBITDA result thanks to high cost savings and effective operating activities – said Maciej Wyczesany, president of Apator, after the publication of the results for the third quarter of 2025.
Efficiency improvements obscured by risk
Damian Szparaga, an analyst from the Pekao Brokerage House, draws attention to the improvement in operational efficiency, and on November 20, as part of the Analytical Coverage Support Program (an initiative financed by the WSE), he issued an update of the recommendations for Apator.
The recommendation has not changed and is still “buy”, and the target price was set at PLN 27.6 (previously it was PLN 28.5). That's over 20 percent. more than the price on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which – as noted by prof. Krzysztof Borowski, an expert in technical analysis – went down to the upward trend line. I hope he will defend it, although it is not a good sign if the price does not have the strength to grow after good results.
Perhaps the reason is that the company will record lower revenues this year than last year. BM Pekao analyst estimates that it will be PLN 1.18 billion, i.e. 4%. less than in 2024. Profits are expected to increase – at the EBITDA level by 20%. up to PLN 172 million, and net by 15%. up to PLN 84 million. The price/earnings ratio is not excessive and amounts to 8.8 (and for forecasts for 2026, 11.3), and EV/EBITDA is 5.0.
“We expect that in the coming years the company will generate decent cash flows with a high single-digit FCF rate, which should translate into a decline in the net debt ratio in the coming years, assuming no acquisitions. Further improvement of the company's cash situation creates room to increase the amount of dividends,” says Damian Szparaga.
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Apator has a defined dividend policyaccording to which the management board annually recommends a payment of no more than 75%. net profit of the parent company. For 2024, it was PLN 0.9 (including PLN 0.3 in the form of an advance), the analyst expects that for 2025 it will be PLN 0.6, and for 2026 – PLN 1. These are not exciting values, although there is potential for them to be higher, because the company recently sold two pieces of land in Toruń for a total price of PLN 17.6 million. The recommendation regarding the dividend for 2025 should appear no later than in the second quarter of 2026.
Beware of possible fines from the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection
The situation may be complicated by the outcome of the proceedings conducted by the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection against Apator Metrix, a subsidiary of Apator. The proceedings were initiated due to the suspicion of concluding an agreement involving the division of the market in relation to bellows gas meters and agreeing the terms of offers submitted in tenders for the supply of bellows gas meters organized by Polska Spółka Gazownictwa. The company is threatened with a fine, the potential amount of which is up to PLN 120 million, but the analyst estimates that in reality it may be no more than PLN 22 million.
“At the moment, it is difficult to estimate how long the proceedings will take and what their final result will be,” sums up Damian Szparaga.
Apator's results in the third quarter of 2025.
In the third quarter of 2025 Apator's net profit increased by one third to PLN 23.3 million. It was by 25 percent. more than analysts' expectations. The company's consolidated revenues amounted to PLN 295.8 million and were only slightly higher, by 1.1 percent. higher than last year. EBITDA increased by 11%. up to PLN 42.4 million (4.2% above expectations).
After three quarters, revenues are 6.6 percent higher. lower y/y amount to PLN 865.9 million, and a significant decline concerns export sales (-15%), which constitutes approximately 40%. general.
At the EBITDA level, the result was improved by 2.4%. to PLN 117.56 million, and the net profit adjusted for the relief for research and development in the gas segment amounted to PLN 51.2 million (-1% y/y).
In my portfolio, Apator shares have over 6% share. I'm about 20% on them. “forward”. I have better assets in my portfolio, but I am patiently waiting for Apator to show its potential.
The article is a summary of the recommendation, available in full on the BM Pekao website.
