In his opinion, Lukashenko is not helping the Kremlin out of sympathy for the illegitimate Russian President Vladimir Putin. He really doesn’t want to be drawn into the war in Ukraine, but, in fact, Minsk has already lost its independence.
“In the military sphere, Belarus really does not have its own sovereignty. Because there is already a long process of building a single state with the Russians… And even more so after the signing of joint agreements, changes in military doctrine and the creation of a joint group of troops,” Pavlenko said.
He pointed out that the intelligence services of Belarus are completely controlled by the Russian Federation, but much weaker. Lukashenko is afraid that the Kremlin will involve the security forces of the Republic of Belarus in military operations or provocations.
“He sees in a nightmare that he will receive some tasks to start an escalation. And for this, he gives preference to the development of the economy, which, according to experts, has lost half of the planned growth for 2026, and this is just the beginning,” Pavlenko added.
