A crucial ocean current system is about to change radically. A country has just declared a national security threat
Reykjavik, Iceland. Image Source: Jeremyreds | Dreamstime.com
Iceland's relatively mild climate is shaped by a crucial network of currents that sweep across the Atlantic Ocean, carrying heat northward—without it, the island would be much colder and storms more frequent. As signals mount that the system may be collapsing, the government has made an unusual move to frame the situation as a national security threat, according to CNN.
The move by the Icelandic government triggers high-level action on preparations for this “existential threat”.
“Our climate, economy and security are deeply linked to the stability of the ocean currents around us,” explained Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson, Iceland's Minister for the Environment, Energy and Climate.
AMOC stability concerns
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an essential ocean current system that transports heat, salt and nutrients over great distances, directly influencing the global climate, particularly that of Europe and North America.
When scientists are asked what potential climate impact they are most concerned about, AMOC collapse tops the list.
A growing body of research points to a slowing of the AMOC as warmer global temperatures disrupt the delicate balance of heat and salinity on which its strength relies. The scientific community is still uncertain about the likelihood and timing of an eventual collapse, but projections from some studies show that it could be on its way this century.
An AMOC shutdown “can no longer be considered a low-probability risk,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, an oceanographer and climatologist who has studied the AMOC at Potsdam University in Germany.
The impact would be catastrophic, causing major changes in global weather and climate, including rising sea levels in areas of Europe and the US, disruption of monsoon systems affecting countries in Asia and Africa, and freezing winters in Europe, with the possibility of sea ice advancing as far south as the UK.
An “existential threat” to Iceland
Iceland “would be near the center of a serious regional cooling,” meaning the country could be surrounded by sea ice, Rahmstorf told CNN.
It's an “existential threat,” Minister Jóhannsson told CNN. AMOC's collapse could devastate infrastructure, transport and vital industries, including fisheries, he added.
Jóhannsson informed the government of the latest scientific findings after research published in August raised “serious concerns” about the future stability of the AMOC. In September, Iceland's National Security Council designated the potential collapse of the power system as a national security risk, marking the first time a climate impact has received this designation in the country.
The decision “reflects the seriousness of the problem and ensures that it receives the attention it deserves,” Iceland's climate minister said. Specifically, the framing will require high-level government action to understand the threat and find ways to prevent and mitigate its worst consequences, the official explained.
Photo source: Jeremyreds | Dreamstime.com
