The NBR draws a line at 9 months: the external deficit is increasing. Short-term external debt is covered by more than 100% of foreign exchange reserves
The release of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) on the balance of payments and external debt for the first nine months of 2025 indicates a two-sided picture: on the one hand, an increased dependence on imports and a rising debt, and on the other hand, solid investor confidence and a strong shield of foreign exchange reserves.
The current account deficit deepens: consumption exceeds production
Romania recorded a current account deficit of 22.275 million euros in the first nine months of 2025, up from 20.515 million euros in the same period in 2024. This deficit signals that the country spends (through imports and payments abroad) more than it earns.
The main driver of the deficit remains goods, where the deficit increased by almost 850 million euros. In Romanian, we import much more goods (cars, energy, consumer goods) than we export.
A “light in the dark” is the export of services. The balance of services surplus increased to almost 10 million euros due to the strong performance of IT and transport exports.
The primary income deficit (repatriated profits, interest) deepened significantly, by 1.25 million euros, reaching 8.075 million euros, reflecting the growing profits sent home by foreign companies.
Anchors of stability: foreign investments and NBR reserves
One key piece of news is that investor confidence remains strong. Non-resident direct investments (FDI) in Romania totaled 5.647 billion euros, up from 4.96 billion euros in 2024.
Of this total, the largest part is represented by equity participations and reinvested profits. FDI is the most stable form of deficit financing because it brings long-term capital, jobs and technology and is a key anchor of economic stability.
Foreign reserves cover 6.0 months of imports of goods and services, a level considered high (compared to 5.7 months at 31 December 2024).
Short-term solvency: Short-term external debt is covered by 103.2% of NBR reserves. This reduces the risk of a balance of payments crisis, as reserves are sufficient to cover debts due in one year.
External debt: steady growth
The total external debt increased by 17.773 billion euros, reaching 221.283 billion euros. This increase is mainly due to loans made by the Public Administration (State).
Long-term debt remains the majority, reaching 78.6 percent of the total.
Cost of Debt Falling: The long-term external debt service ratio has improved, falling to 15.1 percent from 21.5 percent in 2024. This shows that debt payments, relative to export earnings, are becoming more manageable.
Why do these numbers matter? (real implications)
This technical data directly influences the real economy and everyday life:
Exchange Rate/Inflation Vulnerability: The large deficit and the continued need for financing put pressure on the exchange rate (leu/euro) and contribute to imported inflation (higher prices for imported goods).
Borrowing cost: Accelerating public debt growth will put pressure on budget costs and the country's long-term rating.
The big picture is that Romania is growing, but remains dependent on foreign capital and imports. Reducing dependence on imported goods and accelerating the development of high-value-added sectors such as IT and advanced services are vital for sustainability.
In conclusionRomania presents a mixed-positive reality: financing is stable and reserves protect the economy from shocks, but the major challenge remains reducing the gap between consumption and production, reflected in the chronic current account deficit
