The battle for Pokrovsk entered a decisive stage. The stakes of a scenario with repetition on the eastern front

The battle for the city of Pokrovsk has reached a critical juncture as Russian and Ukrainian forces in the city have entered a potentially decisive phase of the battle. While on the ground there are fierce battles for control of every part of the devastated city, there is also a diplomatic stake – both sides trying to win a battle of perception about who has the advantage and who loses.

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Russia claims that its forces encircled Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk and thwarted an operation by them to free logistics lines to the city. Ukraine denies the existence of a blockade, describing the situation as dynamic: fighting is ongoing and Ukrainian forces are inflicting heavy losses on Russia.

Russian forces entered Pokrovsk last month, taking advantage of gaps in Ukrainian defenses. Experts estimate that the Russians could capture the entire city in the coming weeks or months, experts say. Ukrainian commanders in the field admit that the situation is not rosy at all for Ukraine.

“Currently there are no well-defined defense lines, none that can prevent soldiers from entering the city,” said Serhii Filimonov, commander of Ukraine's Da Vinci Wolves battalion. In an interview last week, he estimated that the Russians control more than 70 percent of Pokrovsk.

The Ukrainian president admitted for his part that the situation is difficult, but says that things are not good for the Russians either, as they are pressed for time.

“The enemy started assault operations on 5 (November) and continued to carry out attacks… They lost equipment, but the main objective of the enemy is to occupy Pokrovsk as quickly as possible. This objective is maintained,” he told reporters in Kiev.

The Russians are advancing meter by meter

The Russian breakthrough at Pokrovsk, by infiltrating the city, comes after more than a year of difficult battles in which they advanced about 39 kilometers, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to analysts, the costs were especially high for the Russians – both in terms of soldiers and equipment. They advanced slowly, meter by meter, and crept in small groups, until they came close to the city and found an opportunity to attack, amid the depleted Ukrainian defenses,

Ukraine reacted promptly to plug the breach, deploying elite units and launching a landing operation just last week in an attempt to stop the deep infiltration. Currently, commanders warn that intense street-to-street fighting is taking place and is reaching a tipping point.

The stake is the defense of the eastern front, with Pokrovsk being part of the Donetsk region's belt of fortresses – heavily defended and vital defense support cities that also include Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Drujkivka.

Pokrovsk, with a population of 60,000 before the war, was a crucial logistics center for Ukrainian forces. In recent months, however, Russia has used its artillery to secure control over key routes, denying Ukrainian forces the ability to move, evacuate and bring in supplies.

A city with stakes for negotiations

Pokrovsk is no longer just a battlefield and a battle for an insignificant territory, but also a frame of reference that can influence US perceptions and, in this way, the course of peace negotiations, analysts say.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at times under pressure from the US to accept Putin's terms, tried to show Trump that Russia was not winning. Armed with maps of the front line, Zelenski softened Trump's wavering positions.

“Imagine how numerous Russian forces are – and yet, they did not achieve the desired result. In my opinion, they do not have such a result, which they can 'sell' to the Americans,” the Ukrainian president said at a press conference with reporters last week.

“We understand why they need Pokrovsk. They need it just to be able to say – here, in the end, the idea of ​​Ukraine leaving the east and giving all the rest is the only possible one, otherwise it can be assumed that they will take even more” territory, he said.

Losing Pokrovsk would be very damaging for Ukraine, said Peter Dickinson, Ukraine editor at the US-based Atlantic Council think tank.

“Trump doesn't like losers … he likes to be with winners … The Russians will present it as a major victory,” he said.

If Pokrovsk falls, it could pave the way for Russia to take over the rest of Donbas. But these advances, like the battle for Pokrovsk, will take time and, in any case, will entail enormous costs in terms of combat power and military equipment.

“What will this mean from a political point of view: Russia will trumpet that it has achieved a great victory… And they will say, look, we can take all of Donbas; but for how long and at what cost?”, said Orisia Lucevici, head of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House think tank (London).

On the other hand, most of the logistical elements in the area, such as roads and railways, have been destroyed, so the city is no longer as strategically valuable to the Ukrainians as it once was.

“It's primarily a propaganda victory, a symbolic victory, maybe a kind of psychological victory, for the Russians. They have to be able to demonstrate that – Putin desperately needs to demonstrate that they're making progress,” he said.

Mobilization

Russian forces continue to advance from the north, west and east of Pokrovsk, experts say, while Ukrainian forces maintain control of some portions. Ukraine sent additional troops as military intelligence launched a counter-offensive earlier this month in a sustained effort to hold the city's defenses for as long as possible.

“All units that can fight are here right now, infantry, special forces and everyone else,” said Vadim Krikun, commander of the Liubart brigade. “Everybody does their part.”

Hus, a Ukrainian drone operator with the 68th brigade, identified only by his call sign in accordance with military protocol, says Russia's deployment of an elite drone unit has been devastating. “It turned into a duel between drone operators,” he said.

Experts predict that in the coming weeks, the familiar scenario of past battles for territory in the region will be repeated: Russia will send troops into the areas of the city under its control until, finally, the Ukrainian forces are overwhelmed.

Ukraine is struggling to avoid just such a scenario.