The Monetary Policy Council reduced interest rates in November 2025. This is already the second autumn quarter

This time the Monetary Policy Council did not surprise economists and, as expected, reduced the NBP interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. This was the fourth decision of this type in a row, leading to a decline in interest rates on bank loans and deposits.

Pursuant to the decision of the Monetary Policy Council of November 5, 2025, the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland will be as follows:

• reference rate 4.25% per annum;
• lombard rate 4.75% per annum;
• deposit rate 3.75% per annum;
• rediscount rate of bills of exchange 4.30% per annum;
• bill of exchange discount rate 4.35% per annum.

In each case, this represents a reduction of 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point. This decision was quite widely expected on the market. In the PAP Biznes survey, 18 out of 20 surveyed centers predicted a 25-point reduction. Only two economists bet on keeping interest rates unchanged.

After the November reduction, interest rates at the National Bank of Poland are the lowest in 3.5 years. This was the fifth reduction in interest rates in Poland this year. The first one took place in May, when the Monetary Policy Council, after almost half a year of stabilizing the money price, immediately decided to cut it by 50 points.

In June, the Council “rested” and kept rates unchanged. Another cut – surprising for most economists – 25 bp. – took place in July, and the next one (already expected by the market) materialized in September. The cuts continued also in October, when the Council lowered rates contrary to the expectations of most analysts. As a result, the total scale of monetary policy loosening in Poland since the beginning of the year amounted to 150 basis points. Therefore, this is quite a dynamic cycle of reductions, and not any “adjustment” of interest rates announced by the Council.

Most economists as well as the government agree that interest rates in Poland are currently too high in relation to inflation and the economic situation. The market consensus assumes that the cycle of loosening monetary policy in Poland will end in 2026 with the NBP reference rate at the level of 3.50-4.00%. It is worth being aware that all such forecasts carry a very high risk of error.

We are still dealing with a situation where CPI inflation exceeds the 2.5% target of the National Bank of Poland. In October, it amounted to 2.8% per year – according to a quick estimate by the Central Statistical Office. Admittedly, it was the fourth month in a row in which CPI inflation is within the permissible (+/- 1 percentage point) deviation from the target, but it is still more than the 2.5% desired by the NBP.

Who is happy about lower interest rates?

Another reduction in interest rates will probably please debtors who repay their liabilities based on a variable interest rate. This group mainly includes people in debt for the purchase of real estate who incurred their obligations before 2022. The ruling politicians will be even more pleased, as the State Treasury is the largest debtor in the country.

At the same time, savers will again lose out, for whom the reduction of NBP rates will mean lower interest earned on bank deposits or bonds based on variable interest rates. However, real positive interest rates (ex post) still apply in Poland. This means that the NBP reference rate exceeds CPI inflation for the previous 12 months.

This state of affairs has been in force since the beginning of 2024. However in 2017-23 we had a policy of real negative NBP interest rates, when they were deliberately kept below CPI inflation. In the years 2021-23, real interest rates in Poland were deeply negative, reaching even -10%.

The publication of the official statement of the Monetary Policy Council containing the justification for the October decision is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. However, this will be explained in more detail by the President of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński, during Thursday's press conference. The next – and last in 2025 – meeting of the Council is scheduled for December 2-3.

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