On Wednesday, the US Department of the Treasury announced the first sanctions against Russian oil companies during President Donald Trump's second term. This decision caused an immediate market reaction – on Thursday, Brent and WTI oil prices increased by 5%, reaching USD 66 and 62, respectively.
Goldman Sachs experts pointed out that although the oil price forecast for 2026 remains unchanged, sanctions may affect the supply of the raw material. The bank predicts that oil production in Russia will decline by 0.6 million barrels per day compared to 2024 levels. Both key producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, are responsible for exports of 3 million barrels per day, which is 45%. total oil exports from Russia. Nevertheless, as analysts note, the impact of sanctions on the global market may be limited thanks to potential exemptions for importers under special licenses.
The bank's report also indicated that limiting purchases of Russian raw materials may be temporary, especially if there is progress in the peace process related to the war in Ukraine. In a scenario in which the supply of oil from Russia decreases by 1.5 million barrels per day for two quarters, the price of Brent crude oil could rise to $85 and then fall to an average of $73. in 2026 In turn, if OPEC countries compensate for the shortages, the price at the peak should be over $70, and in 2026 it will reach an average of $63.
Read also: “They finance the Kremlin's war machine.” Why are Rosneft and Lukoil so important to the Russian economy?
The US decision also influenced the actions of other countries. Indian state refiners are reviewing their purchases of Russian crude to ensure supplies do not come from sanctioned companies. According to the BBC, Russian oil imports to India increased from 4 million tonnes in 2021-2022 to over 87 million tonnes in 2024-2025, mainly due to discounts offered by Russia after the introduction of sanctions by the West.
