2025-10-23 10:22
publication
2025-10-23 10:22
The euro-zloty pair unsuccessfully attacked support in the form of the lower limit of this year's sideways trend. Nevertheless, the strength of the Polish currency could be impressive given the unfavorable market environment.
On Thursday morning, the euro exchange rate remained unchanged at PLN 4.2332. But on Wednesday late afternoon, the euro rates dropped even to PLN 4.2217, thus briefly violating the lower limit (i.e. PLN 4.2250) of the sideways trend in force since April.
Since April, the EUR/PLN exchange rate has been in the range of PLN 4.23-4.31, with local lows of PLN 4.2250 from mid-May. This is the level the market faced yesterday. Based on technical analysis, a breakout from consolidation would herald an attack on this year's minimum (PLN 4.1275) at the end of February, when the euro exchange rate was the lowest in 10 years.
– From the point of view of technical analysis, the EUR/PLN exchange rate breaking the support level near 4.2250 opened the way towards the 4.20-4.2050 zone – PKO BP analysts looked at the matter a bit more conservatively in their morning report.
– However, taking into account the scale of the zloty appreciation in recent days and the lack of new significant, not yet priced market impulses that could support the continuation of this movement, – in our opinion – the probability of a correction increaseswhich could bring the rate close to 4.2450, where we see the first short-term resistance – added PKO BP experts.
The strengthening of the zloty observed in recent days is surprising because it took place amid a slight deterioration in market sentiment. For a week, the S&P500 has not broken its historical records, and on Wednesday Wall Street even saw declines.
Additionally, US President Donald Trump canceled his announced meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And this reduces the chances of an imminent cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, a scenario the Polish market has been “playing” in recent days.
With the euro falling against the zloty and the dollar slightly strengthening against the Community currency, the “green” exchange rate remained at PLN 3.6490. This is roughly the middle of the range in which the USD/PLN exchange rate has been moving since August.
It is worth noting that the Swiss franc remained in its “corridor”. In the morning, the Helvetian currency cost PLN 4.5770 and was almost half a penny cheaper than the day before. And on Tuesday, the CHF/PLN rate was attacking the line of PLN 4.60, which marks the upper limit of the sideways trend that has been in force since April. At that time, it was not so much the result of the weakening of the zloty, but of the record high quotations of the franc in relation to the euro.
In turn, the value of the pound sterling was close to this year's lows. The British currency was PLN 4.8720 on Thursday morning. This year's day is located at a depth of PLN 4.8415 and was established at the end of September. The pound was then at its cheapest since December 2020.
K.K
