The report examines the impact of recent US tariffs and changes in global trade on corporate insolvencies. According to the trade credit insurer, global corporate insolvencies will reach a “high level” (+6%) by the end of 2025, with the number expected to peak in 2026, which will be the fifth consecutive year with a 5% increase in insolvencies. y/y. Allianz Trade expects a slight decline in insolvencies worldwide (by 1%) in 2027.
The authors of the study stated that As for Poland, the latest data show an increase in the number of insolvencies in all sectorswith the dynamics driven “mostly” by construction (+30% y/y after the third quarter), and in terms of the absolute number of cases, the largest number of cases is in the services sector (36% insolvency).
“The forecast for our entire economy is to increase their number by 14% in 2025. and by 5 percent in 2026” – said Allianz Trade experts. They pointed out that despite “good” economic foundations, especially thanks to the revival of investments and funds from KPO funds, SME enterprises are still struggling with structural weaknesses. They pointed out that this is due to, among others, labor costs that have been high for some time and soon also – as they informed – “a so far unconfirmed but expected increase in the effective taxation in connection with the budget situation.
— Poland did not fit into the scale common to all countries last year, with an increase in the number of insolvencies by 427%. at the end of 2024 compared to the average from 2016-2019. It is true that the vast majority of insolvencies in Poland concern companies from the SME sector and we are not yet facing a large number of insolvencies of large companies – noted Sławomir Bąk, member of the Management Board of Allianz Trade in Poland responsible for risk assessment.
However, he pointed out that companies benefiting from the protection provided by restructuring do not settle their debts, so “a significant number of newly opened companies do not solve the problem of losses suffered by existing suppliers of insolvent companies.”
— The cost of simplified restructuring proceedings, accounting for over 90%. all insolvencies are spread primarily to their business partners – analogous companies from the SME sector – said Bąk. In his opinion, it is difficult to talk about the benefits of these restructurings when only 1/3 of the initiated restructurings pass the first stage – approval of the arrangement, and “very few of them manage to successfully implement it”.
How do increased American tariffs affect the condition of companies?
Allianz Trade pointed out in a report that the “enormous” import tariffs introduced by the Trump administration, which will reach an average effective rate of 14% by the end of the year, are having a “diverse impact” on businesses.
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— In the first half of 2025, the protectionist effects of tariffs and their relatively mild implementation helped reduce US insolvencies by 4 percentage points, with rising demand offsetting most of their negative effects, said Maxime Lemerle, principal insolvency research analyst at Allianz Trade.
In his opinion, however, the number of bankruptcies can be expected to increase in export-based economies: in the worst-case scenario, Canada could see an additional 1,900 insolvent companies, France 6,000, Spain up to 2,900 and the Netherlands 700. By contrast, in Germany, the UK, Italy and Belgium the impact (of the existing tariffs) will be negligible due to the diversification of their export markets, larger domestic base or stronger financial position.
Allianz Trade maintains a global forecast of corporate bankruptcies for 2025, assuming an increase in their number by 6%. According to experts, this is due to a 10% increase already in 2024, which means that the global number of insolvencies this year will reach the highest level since 2019 and will be 19%. higher than the pre-pandemic average.
The insurer noted that year-to-date data shows “significant increases” in all regions, especially in Asia and Western Europe, with “particularly marked increases” in insolvencies recorded in Italy (38%) and Switzerland (26%).
Companies' resilience put to the test
— For now, the effects of the trade war are moderate, but as mitigation strategies are exhausted and side effects emerge, they could soon test the resilience of businesses. The risk of a domino effect resulting from the growing number of insolvencies of large enterprises is also increasing, says Allianz Trade CEO Aylin Somersan Coqui.
In her opinion, this leads to an increase in the risk of non-payment. — We currently expect the global number of corporate insolvencies to increase by 5% in 2026. compared to 3 percent growth that we expected in our previous forecast, she said.
Allianz Trade also expects business resilience to be tested by the co-occurrence of three “critically important” factors: slow economic growth (with growth rates in the United States and the euro area expected to remain below the threshold necessary to stabilize the number of bankruptcies), difficult financing conditions for companieswith persistently high interest rates and limited credit supply, which places a burden on companies with significant debt and capital-intensive business models, especially SMEs, weaknesses of individual sectorswith the construction and automotive sectors being the most affected due to high interest rates, technological disruption and increased competition. The authors of the report also emphasized that the technological and artificial intelligence boom may result in a further increase in the number of bankruptcies
