2025-10-20 10:25
publication
2025-10-20 10:25
The September reading from the Central Statistical Office in the manufacturing sector showed a clear recovery in the Polish economy. The reading overshadowed the already positive forecast, showing that the sold value of the Polish industry grew at the fastest pace since April 2024. Economists, however, indicate that it is too early to celebrate.
The value of sold production of Polish industry in September 2025 was 7.4% higher than in the corresponding month of the previous year (when a decrease of 0.4% was recorded), the Central Statistical Office reported. This is a clear jump in the annual dynamics of the indicator after the reading of 0.7% in August and this year's July peak of 3%, and the highest result since April 2024. On a month-on-month basis, production increased by 16%.
Economists expected a clear increase in industrial production over the year and an even stronger rebound compared to August. The median forecast was 5% year-on-year and 13.5% month-on-month for non-seasonally adjusted data. Monday's reading turned out to be much better than expected.
According to the Central Statistical Office, in the period January – September, industrial production sold was 2.7% higher than in the corresponding period of 2024 (then an increase of 0.2% was recorded). After eliminating the influence of seasonal factors, in September industrial production sold was 5.7% higher than a year ago and 4.1% higher than in August.
“Among the main industrial groups, in September this year there was an annual increase in the production of investment goods – by 16.0%, non-durable consumer goods – by 7.6%, supply goods – by 5.0% and durable consumer goods – by 4.1%. However, the production of energy-related goods decreased – by 4.5%,” the Central Statistical Office reported.
Sections of Polish industry that grew the most in September
Preliminary data for September this year showed an increase in sold production (at constant prices) in 24 out of 34 industry sectors. The largest increase (by 34.6%) occurred in the repair, maintenance and installation of machines and equipment. High growth was also shown by:
- production of machines and devices (+16.2%)
- metals (+13.3%)
- motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (+12.8%)
- metal products (+11.4%)
- groceries (+9.1%)
- products made of other non-metallic mineral raw materials (+8.9%)
- paper and paper products (+8.0%)
- computers, electronic and optical products (+7.9%)
Compared to August, sold production (at constant prices) in September increased in 32 of 34 departments responsible for 96.6% of total production. Much of this increase can be explained by the low base in August. The growth leader was Motor Vehicles (+52.4% m/m), followed closely by Computers/Electronics (+34.6% m/m) and Pharmaceuticals (+30.5%). The decline in production occurred only in two sectors: Other transport equipment (-8.1%) and beverages (-1.3%).
Solid reading from the Polish industry, but it is too early to celebrate
As ING bank economists commented on the X platform, a solid increase in the production of domestic industry in September (7.4% y/y) occurred, among others, thanks to the arrangement of working days and the low base. Analysts pointed out that difficult months lie ahead due to the stagnation in Germany and production stoppages as well as plant closures in the automotive sector.
“The industry returned from the holidays and quickly achieved a phenomenal result: +4% m/m after seasonality, a new record in production levels. However, it should be remembered that this type of shocks have already happened and the end of breaks in the automotive industry contributed to this. Nevertheless, the trend is upwards,” commented Pekao bank analysts.
Prepared by MM
