The day hunted by Donald Trump comes: The Nobel for Peace, awarded in less than 24 hours / What does bookmakers show about his chances
Donald Trump, speech at American Army Photo meeting: Evan Vucci / Ap / Profimedia
The winner of the Nobel Peace Prize 2025 will be announced on Friday at 12.00 at an official Oslo ceremony. Less than 24 hours before the Grand announcement, US President Donald Trump is the favorite of betting houses to win the Nobel Peace Prize, according to Oddspedia – a platform for sports information and betting that agreed the data from the betting houses.
- Betting markets have repeatedly proved to be a good means to predict the results of various events. Although in most cases the rule applied for major sporting events such as Super Bowl or the World Football Cup, betting houses have also predicted correctly for the presidential elections in various countries, for the person of the year designated by Time Magazine and even for the Nobel Prize.
- The winner for literature was correctly predicted by the bookmakers in 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2011. The betting market was on the Youusafzai Malala as a favorite in 2013 for the Nobel for Peace. It did not win it then in 2014, when it was also on the short list.
Less than 24 hours before the winner's designation, Donald Trump has an average share of 2 (double the amount bet) to get the prize that he has repeatedly stated that he wants it.
According to ODDSPEDIA, the probable that Donald Trump is the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize 2025 is 33.3%.
The US president is followed by “Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms” (ERRS) – a humanitarian assistance network initiated by the local communities in Sudan, which appeared in response to the crisis generated in April 2023 between Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support forces (RSF). The network is listed with a probability of 28.7%.
Iulia Navalnaia, the wife of former Russian dissident Alexei Navalnîi died in 2024 in a Russian gulag, is rated with a 20% probability to obtain the Nobel Peace Prize.
Who are still rated with chances at Nobel
The United Nations Agency to help and work for Palestinian refugees in the Middle East (UNRWA) is quoted with a probability of 14.29% to obtain the Nobel Peace Prize that is granted one day after the entry into force of an armistice in Gaza.
In the ranking of bettors, although with much lower percentages, there is the Ukrainian president Volodimir Zelenski (5.88%), the activist Greta Thunberg and Pope Leon XIV (3.85%) or Elon Musk (2.94%).
The long -coveted prize by Trump
At the United Nations General Assembly in September, the US president said he “ended seven endless wars.”
Last week, Trump presented a fire termination plan in 20 points for the Gaza War, the moment when his Nobel Peace Prize won decreased from +600 to +200.
Almost 20% of the winners of the last 50 years have received the Nobel Peace Prize for their involvement in the peace processes or to ensure a peace agreement between the nations in the war.
If the Nobel for Peace goes to Trump, he becomes the second US president who wins this distinction, after Barack Obama, who won in 2009. Obama then received the distinction for “his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples”.
But he was a former American leader who received the Nobel for Peace: Jimmy Carter. This happened in 2002, 21 years after the end of his presidential term, when he was awarded for “decades of tireless efforts to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to promote democracy and human rights and to stimulate economic and social development” through the Carter Foundation.
How the winner is announced
The process of designating the winner of the Nobel Prize is quite simple. It is decided by a voting process within the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The role of the committee was defined in the will of Alfred Nobel and was established by the Norwegian (the Parliament of the country) in 1897.
The instructions in Nobel's will provided that the winner be chosen by the person or group that “did the most or best work for fraternity between nations, for abolishing or reducing permanent armies and for organizing and promoting peace congresses”.
The Nobel Norwegian committee consists of five members, each of them being chosen for a six -year term. The current Nobel Norwegian committee consists of Jørgen Watne Frydnes, Asle Tje, Anne Enger, Kristin Clemet and Gry Larsen.
