2025-10-07 09:52
publication
2025-10-07 09:52
Today, a two -day meeting of the Monetary Policy Council begins. The reduction of interest rates is not a base scenario, but it cannot be ruled out. The zloty market, however, remains calm, with the euro exchange rate within this year's consolidation.
The market consensus assumes that the NBP interest rates will remain unchanged in October, none of the forecasts would put their own money on such a forecast. Economists clearly point out that the base scenario remains a reduction in November, but cutting the feet in October is unlikely to be a surprise. You can read more about this in the article entitled “RPP decision: The risk of reduction of the feet is high, but not obvious.”
For now, the zloty market does not seem to be particularly concerned about the uncertainty related to the October decision of the MPC. Apparently, assuming that it does not make much difference whether the feet will be cut now or in four weeks. As a result, on Tuesday at 9:50 the euro exchange rate remained without significant changes, at the level of PLN 4.2589.
Any stronger reaction of Euro-gold quotations threatens us on Thursday afternoon, when the NBP president Adam Glapiński goes to the rostrum. It is the statements of the chairman of the council that will shape market expectations primarily regarding next year's interest rate reductions. This is much more important than whether the feet in the NBP will fall tomorrow or in a month.
Meanwhile, a slight pressure appeared globally to strengthen the American dollar. The EUR/USD exchange rate went down and dropped below USD 1.17. Theoretically, a stronger dollar is a negative signal for currencies from emerging markets, including Polish zloty. Only that during the previous weeks and months our currency did not react very positively to the weakening of the dollar. This is how he may not be worried about his strengthening.
As a result, in the morning the dollar on the Polish market was expensive by 1.6 grosze, reaching a price of PLN 3.6481. This does not change the fact that a dollar-gold steam has been in force since spring, a mild inheritance trend is a continuation of the trends started three years ago.
It is worth noting, however, a clear strengthening of the Swiss franc in relation to the euro. The Helwecka currency has been recorded close to the strongest values for two months. With us, this means a franc for PLN 4,5741, which is a penny more expensive than the day before. However, the CHF/PLN exchange rate is still located in a side trend lasting for half a year, with a range of PLN 4.50-4.60.
