Chodorkowski: Sanctions do not work. You need readiness to use defensive force

The Russian critic of the Kremlin Mikhail Chodorkowski assessed on Friday on Politico that the example of Russian drones testing NATO defense proves that sanctions imposed on Russia will not succeed without balanced by military investments and readiness to use defensive force.

According to Chodorkowski, a former oil magnate and later a political prisoner, the West tries to force Russia to abandon aggression through energy sanctions, but he does not understand the goals or the way of thinking of the Russian leader of Vladimir Putin.

The war against Ukraine is a strategic and ideological game against the idea of ​​flowering democratic nations in the vicinity of Russia and the strengthening of the domination that Moscow enjoyed for most of the 20th century – said the author.

The belief that the Kremlin war machine can go bankrupt as a result of energy sanctions imposed on Russia will not work. Western leaders count on this because they perceive Putin's motives through the prism of their own democratic values ​​and do not understand the global oil market. But European leaders must adapt to national public opinion, and for Putin it is irrelevant.

Removing from the market up to 5 million barrels of Russian oil and 2 million barrels of petroleum products without causing oil is a complicated task of doubtful chances of success – says Chodorkowski. That is why Western leaders avoid this step. In addition, oil is also bought by countries for which Russian aggression is distant and irrelevant.

The price of oil $ 70 per barrel is equal to tax revenues in the amount of $ 60 billion for the Russian federal budget, of which about 40 percent. It is used to pay for the war – said the author. In the current situation, the combined funds aimed at isolating the Russian energy sector have reduced this amount to around $ 30-40 billion. In his opinion, secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil may reduce budget revenues by another $ 10-15 billion.

But even a loss of $ 40 billion Annually, from the 400-million federal budget, of which oil and gas revenues constitute at most 17 percent, will not force Moscow to change the course and will not make Putin negotiate. It can easily compensate for losses by light devaluation of the ruble. At the same time, there are no domestic opponents that he must take into account. And although the White House can hope that Europe will replace Russian energy carriers with American oil and gas, the transactional approach of US President Donald Trump clearly shows that this would have a financial price – whose European countries, unlike Russia, feeling the pressure of the electorate, do not want to pay.

Sanctions will never change the rules of the game for Putin. Avoiding sanctions or alleviating their effects – this is just a minor inconvenience that you have to deal with. Therefore, the only way to force Putin to end the war is massive and the armed forces are being expanded. Nothing else will be so decisive.

And yet EU leaders have difficulty convincing their voters that permanent financial and political investments in defense expenses are necessary. Their dilemmas and lack of unity are dared to China and reflect strategic leadership only to Trump – with all the consequences that are associated with it.

War against Ukraine – a war in which we are all participants, wanting not to – is the decisive question of our time. The recent invasion of Russian drones to Poland and Romania showed the existential threat to which we are all faced. And such a threat requires an uncompromising reaction – argues the author.

The time has come to realize that although energy and other sanctions can be a step in the right direction, they will not force Putin to withdraw, and even more so to defeat him.

Chodorkowski, who is currently living in exile in Great Britain, was at the beginning of Putin's rule one of the richest people in Russia. In 2003 he was arrested, when he fell into conflict with the Kremlin, accused Putin's surroundings of corruption and began to support the opposition financially. In 2005, he was sentenced to nearly 11 years of labor camp for alleged economic crimes. He never confessed to his deeds and claimed that his arrest and trial were a punishment for political ambitions. In 2013, he was pardoned by Putin and went abroad. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he co -founded, along with other known oppositionists, the anti -war committee of Russia. (PAP)

Os/ Mal/