2025-09-25 22:15
publication
2025-09-25 22:15
A series of surprisingly good reports from the US economy on Thursday brought down the main stock indexes in New York. It happened because for Wall Street good news is now bad news.
The S & P500 index ended with a Thursday session of 6,604.72 points, which translated into a 0.50%decrease. During the day, the benchmark's regression reached over 1%. It was the third in a row the inheritance session performed by S&PC after Monday once again set a new record of all time this year.
Nasdaq Composite lowered by 0.50%, descending to a height of 22,384.70 points. The industrial average of Dow Jones reduced its flights by 0.38%, finishing with a result of 45 947.32 points. Also for Nasdaq and Djia it was the third inheritance day in a row.
The “official” explanation of these declines – or rather a gentle withdrawal – was a gentle reduction of expectations for future interest rate reductions in the federal reserve. The implied probability of cutting feet in October decreased to 86% compared to 92% the day before. The chances of two 25-point foot reductions in Feda this year are now valued at 60% compared to 82% a week ago-according to the Fedwatch Tool calculations.
The reason for this was a few rather restrained statements of Fedian officials. Anyway, no central banker likes to speak directly and usually the keys in their statements, trying to deceive market participants. And then in Feda they do what the market tells them. After 2008, it never happened that FOMC made a decision incompatible with the expectations of investors.
But in addition, the data flowing from the US economy improved quite unexpectedly. First of all, the weekly reading of the number of newly registered unemployed was surprised. A result at the level of 218 thousand It turned out to be much lower than 235,000 expected by economists. and 232 thousand recorded a week earlier. Meanwhile, it is the risk of falling employment that is officially the main reason for the Fed resumption by the cycle of interest rates.
Therefore, for Wall Street, at the moment every too good news from the economy is bad news that reduces the expectations of foot reductions in Feda and in a trail behind it causing a decrease in the valuations of the most “hot” technology companies. In addition, they positively surprised the data from the industry, where the value of orders for lasting goods in August rose by as much as 2.9% MDM, although it was expected to decrease by 0.5% MDM. Even after switching off orders for transport (which can be very variable from month to month), an increase was recorded by 0.4% MDM, although the market consensus was zero.
– Economic data that appears in recent days is quite misleading. In the sense that they put into question how much the Fed will cut the feet and whether he has to do it at all this year – joint Peter Tuz, the head of the Chase Investment Counsel quoted by the Reuters agency.
It is also worth being aware that American shares are valued close to the highest levels in history in relation to the expected profits of companies. The C/Z indicator based on the expected profits for the next four quarters climbed to a height of up to 22.8. Above it was only during the internet bubble and in 2021. In both of these cases we were later dealing with Bessa.
The American stock market is after a very strong growth wave, lasting for half a year. Since the April “customs shock”, the S & P500 index has grown by as much as 44%, while Nasdaq went up by 53%. Some correction of such strong increases would be the most expected and natural.
KK
