Trump's lesson for Poland. This means the words of the US president [OPINIA]

After September 10 and the inlet of Russian drones to Poland, Warsaw has not yet had clear declarations of support from the President of the USA. Mysterious “here in him“, Suggestions that there was a Russian mistake or a single -sentence announcement that Donald Trump would help Poland if necessary – all this expressed in a half -grip poured sentences.

Even the confusion around the statements of the US President cited by PAP, which most likely concerned Ukraine, drew attention from the fact that the American president ignored the question about the key problem for Warsaw.

Donald Trump knows what he could say

And yet the US administration is well aware of what Poland expects. Trump himself also proved that he knows perfectly well what Polish sensitivity expects. “We stand side by side, defending Article 5. For a joint obligation to defend collective defense” – he said in a memorable speech at Krasińskich Square in Warsaw in July 2017, referring to the long history of the Polish struggle for freedom. The White House knew what the US President should say in the largest capital of the eastern flank of NATO. And he knew because he also had an interest in it – showing that there are countries in Europe where the head of state contested by the western capitals will be celebrated.

Today, Trump could write or say the same thing in one of the interviews, so that it would happen to Poland with great satisfaction. So why doesn't he speak? Not because of deficits in expression. He had no resistance to rush Volodymyr Zelanski, strictly assess the European Union or then assure you about the splendor of the deal concluded with the European Commission or the miracle of his own budget act. As soon as he wants, he comments on matters very clearly – his rhetoric has not changed. So why this time is limited to half -eights?

The essence of the alliance

Experts in international affairs have repeatedly written Fr. American withdrawal from Europe and returning to the Pacific, as well as an attempt to “inverted kissinger”, i.e. pulling Russia out of the alliance with China. The US has their own interest in the reconstruction of their presence on the Old Continent.

For the significance of alliances from Trump's perspective, “dealers” and economic connections are key. This is why Washington is determined to secure the status quo in the Pacific. American companies are still largely dependent on the chips from Taiwan or cooperators from Korea or Japan. The local trade routes, gradually undermined by China, are crucial for American commercial domination.

If the US had against alliances in the Far East, against the powerful business influence and Israel's Republican elites – a long queue of companies and politicians intervening in the case of allies would set up to Trump's office. Who inside the US could have such a great pressure in the case of Poland?

Warsaw has no such position. During the customs war between the USA and the EU, we could breathe a sigh of relief that Warsaw is not exposed to great economic losses. Polish exports to the USA plays a negligible role. The presence of American Big Techów in Poland – though noticeable – is not affectionate from the perspective of global technological development of giants. What distinguishes Poland are powerful arms contracts and significant contracts for the supply of energy. On the 20 largest contracts from 2024 concluded by the American arms, three were concluded with Poland. In 2024 we were also the 12th of the American LNG. Although you need to know moderation here – even in the EU we give way to the Netherlands or Spain. So we are a valuable, but above all a customer. And in many areas, however, an non -priority.

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The US wants to defend Poland

Does this situation mean that the Polish-American alliance is fiction? NO. For the USA, Poland is a valuable ally within NATO, a country open to American investments (which is not so obvious in many places around the world), a potentially important point on the trade route of American goods in the EU, plus the most pro -American country from the EU leaders. And currently also the Lakmus Papier of NATO's decision -making and Washington's strength.

A few enigmatic and not fully expected strange statements in Poland do not change this – the US is still a key element of Polish security. American soldiers are still present in Poland and the belief that this presence is irrelevant, would seek conspiracy theory.

However, it is worth being aware of the context and being aware that there are no alliances at all costs. There are specific resources and opportunities that the US could involve in defending Poland without exposing its security. And they will certainly not defend her to a greater extent than her own contribution. That is why their own initiatives, developing your own sector and cooperation with other players there, Where it is beneficial for us, it is more important than eternal watching at it, “what will Washington say”.

This is well illustrated by the recent case of runny nose – a state with a huge oil industry and huge abilities to conclude contracts with American companies. And yet – As Israel's recent attack showed in Dosze – This country is not under a full “American umbrella”.

The surroundings of Donald Trump focused on the Magician (Make America Great Again) movement is isolationist and reluctant to wider US involvement in various places around the world. And Warsaw – although it is perceived as a loyal and valuable ally – it will not be a complete exception here.

The ally must have arguments

Polish politicians have been full of slogans about the alliance with the United States for years. They crave words of appreciation from the ocean, are satisfied with splendid declarations, and applause is too often associated with the lack of their own agenda. Meanwhile, these are ideas for strengthening bilateral (!) Economic unions, not mental incapacitation They will realistically make the Polish-American alliance stronger.

UK Britain close to the USA is able to undertake projects contrary to Washington's expectations, not to mention France. Countries in a very difficult location are also doing this, an example of which are Ukrainian actions in Russia, Taiwanese trade relations with China. Israel also has no qualms to test the patience of a stronger ally. Why are they doing this? Because they know that their current connections with Washington rely on something other than mutual verbal constant confirmation of friendship. And all this happens when in Poland even small attempts to play on a larger number of pianos too often failed.

Trump's half -editions are a valuable lesson and paradoxically, they can be a favor for Polish society and political class. The sooner they translate into understanding that the alliance lies in something other than nice words, the better.