When the drones crossed the airspace of Poland, the Russian president transmitted a clear message: he does not intend to end war with the West in the near future.
Russian provocation in NATO space occurred after weeks of raids to Ukraine, as a result of which dozens of civilians were killed, buildings housing EU and Great Britain delegations were damaged, and a government building in the center of Kiev was attacked for the first time.
Putin, far from readiness to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine under the pressure of US President Donald Trump, made his political survival dependent on the ongoing conflict with the United States and their allies.
– Putin is the president of the war – says Nikolai Pietrow, a senior analyst at London New Eurasian Strategies Center. – He is not interested in ending it.
The image of the war leader he created to himself means that the return to the role of the president in peace would be tantamount to degradation. – Regardless of the circumstances, he cannot give up this role – adds Petrov.
As Putin's invasion of Ukraine on a full scale is approaching the fourth year, the Russian president probably has the greatest reasons for optimism since the beginning of the war, when the Kremlin hoped to take the country within a few days.
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Due to the weakening of the Ukrainian troops, the lack of weapons and the workforce Russia is getting deeper into the country.
However, Moscow's progress is slow and expensive. The Kremlin's armed forces suffered an estimated one million victims, and the conflict was negatively affected by the Russian economy, which is threatened with a recession.
The desire to destroy NATO
However, from a political point of view, the end of the conflict is associated with risk.
The strict control of the Kremlin over the media and the Internet would probably allow him to present the majority of Russians a peace agreement as a victory. However, this will not be worried about the Russian president.
Services at the fall of the Russian drone in Oleśno, September 10, 2025.Andrzej Jackowski / PAP
Pietrow claims that after the destruction of the liberal opposition in Russia, the biggest threat to the government is currently small, but A loud group of nationalists. The Kremlin promised them a great victory not only over Ukraine, but also over what Moscow calls the “collective West”.
-There is a desire to destroy NATO among the hawks of the military-political establishment-says Aleksander Baunow, a former Russian diplomat, currently a senior researcher at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
To show that NATO is worthless.
Since Putin's meeting with Trump in Alaska last month, which the US president advertised as a peak dedicated to the conclusion of a truce, Moscow intensified her Hybrid war campaign against Europe – military analysts say.
Before Wednesday's provocation, Russian drones entered the Polish airspace several times. In August, the Russian drone crashed about 100 km southwest of Warsaw.
Confrontation with the West
In an article published two days before the drones entering Poland, Dmitry Medvedev, vice -chairman of the Russian Security Council, accused Helsinki of planning an attack, threatening to “any attack” can lead to the fall of Finnish statehood – once and for all “.
Analysts noticed that the rhetoric of the article resembled the Kremlin's arguments before Russia's full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Moscow also started Moving key industriesincluding the shipyard, east of the country, away from the border with NATO – noted Petrov. On Friday, Russia began conducting large -scale military exercises with Belarus, including just abroad with Poland. The exercises are to end on Tuesday.
– Regardless of what Putin achieves in Ukraine, the confrontation with the West will not end. It will continue to continue in various forms – says Pietrow. – also in military form.
Through activities such as provocation in Poland Putin sends Warning to Trump and European leaders discussing security guarantee for Kiev after a possible peace agreement – says Kiriłł Rogow, founder of Think Tank Re: Russia. – Putin showed that he can attack NATO countries today and they do not have defense systems – he adds.
Typical for Putin
Trump's vague signals regarding his involvement in NATO and the reluctance to keep his own terms regarding the imposition of sanctions on Moscow give Putin confidence that he will get away dry.
For the Russian president it is “now or never” – adds Baunow.
Provocations are aimed at Weakening the involvement of the Western Military Alliance In collective defense through small offenses that check NATO's readiness to respond. Baunov says that Putin hopes to reveal that the military alliance is more like a “toothless tiger”. So far, Washington's reaction has confirmed these fears.
On Thursday, Trump repeated Moscow's arguments, telling journalists that “it could be a mistake.”
The Kremlin rejected the accusations that drones were a deliberate provocation. The Russian Ministry of Defense said that “there were no plans to attack objects” in Poland.
Belarus, which, according to Polish officials, served as a starting platform for some drones, stated that the invasion could be the result of an accident caused by “electronic interference”.
“It's typical for Putin trolling and probe,” says Rogow. – He likes when matters are ambiguous so that they can be interpreted as intentional or accidental.
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