What chances do Romania still have to go directly to the World Championship »Specialists' calculations
Article by Adrian Duţă – published Wednesday, September 10, 2025, 00:34 / Updated Wednesday, September 10, 2025 00:48
After the draw with Cyprus, score 2-2, The national of Romania still has purely theoretical chances to take the 1st place in the group. Austria has a minus match and 5 extra points, and the next stage will play with San Marino.
Romania has 7 points in 5 matches. Austria has 12 points in 4 stages. It will reach 15 points after the next match, with San Marino. Thus, with 3 stages left to play, the Austrians will have 8 points over Romania.
Calculation: Only a SF scenario would make Romania win the group
Romania will reach 16 points if it will win all its remaining matches. The “tricolors” have to play parties with Austria, Bosnia and San Marino.
To finish over the Austrians, the red-blue must lose all the remaining matches, apart from the one with San Marino, and Romania to win everything.
In the calculations is also Bosnia, which has 12 points after 5 stages. In the scenario in which Romania would win all its remaining matches, it would be necessary for Bosnia to beat Austria and lose with Cyprus, so that Lucescu's students would also be in the fight for the first place.
Chances of 0.1% direct qualification
Football Meets Data Specialists have entered all the data in a supercomputer, and the result is discouraging: Romania has a chances of 0.1 % to win the group. Only the first place goes directly to the World Championship.
The national team of Mircea Lucescu is credited with 28% chances to take the 2nd place, which would mean dam.
According to calculations, Austria is seen with 99% chance of winning the group. And Bosnia has a 71% chance of ranking 2 and 1% chance of being the first. Thus, it is a probability of 71% for Romania to finish in the 3rd place in the group.
The ranking in the Romanian group
