Ukrainian services are still looking for the perpetrator of the murder in Lviv. The shooting took place on Saturday noon, Andriy Parubij, who in 2016-2019, was the chairman of the Supreme Council, i.e. the Ukrainian parliament, was killed. According to Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj, a military analyst from the Eastern Flanka Institute and lecturers of the University of Bialystok, Russian services could have been behind the murder of Parubija.
– Here immediately arises the issue of possible participation in this Russia. I would like to remind you that Ukrainians also murder key people from the General Staff, Politics or Industry in the Russian Federation. In the case of Parubija, we may not talk about a key person for Ukrainian activities, but if Russian services took part in it, we may be suspected that it was about showing some strength. Simply put, it could be about showing that the Russians can also make murders commissioned in Ukraine – tells Onet Lt. Col. res. Maciej Korowaj.
It could have been a signal from Russia
– It could have been such a warning for Ukrainian services and an element of attempt to intimidate Ukrainian society: we not only bomb you, your blocks, but we will also kill your people when we want. This is a very dangerous message and certainly Ukrainians have to deal with it very quickly. Of course, these are only assumptions, because at the moment we are not sure if it was not about criminal threads – adds the expert.
As he explains, now the most important are the actions of Ukrainian services. – Regardless of whether they were the actions of Russian services or a criminal case, the matter must be quickly and thoroughly clarified by Ukrainian services. There can be no understatement. Ukrainian services must show that they have everything under control.
Ukrainians hit more and more accurately
On Friday night to Saturday, Russia once again made a massive fire of Ukraine. Russia has used 537 Shahed-type impact unmanned aerial vehicles to attack Ukraine, and Drones of various types, eight Ballistic missiles Iskander-M/KN-23, 37 maneuvering and aviation rockets: CH-101, Caliber, Iskander-K, Ch-59. However, most rockets managed to shoot down.
– In principle, Russia does not achieve its military goals. Of course, it moves, but one cannot talk about defeating the armed forces of Ukraine. However, we observe a very large exchange of fire in both directions – explains Lt. Col. Crown – Ukrainians can get better on Russia's strategic goals and do it very painfully. They hit the infrastructure producing fuel and processing crude oil. In the Far East and in some regions of the Russian Federation there is a lack of fuel, and the last attacks on the refineries caused a decrease in Russian oil by 20 percent. This is a fairly substantial decline.
The military analyst, however, draws attention to the difference in the goals that Russia chooses.
– I have a theory, although unconfirmed. I am afraid that the Russians are simply trying to attack people who work in the Ukrainian arms industry. Because they cannot reach industry itself, they try to reach places where employees of this sector live. That is why these attacks are sometimes very precise and targeted at apartment blocks. Hence so many civil victims. It is worth noting, however, that this does not cause morale a decrease in Ukrainians. Quite opposite. Listening to the statements of Ukrainians from bombarded places, we do not hear that you have to give up and end the war. We hear that you have to defeat Russia – says Lt. Col. Crown
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Russia is losing, Putin gains
According to the expert, the prolonged conflict is the least served by Russia itself. However, it pays off to Putin himself, who in war, sees primarily an increase in his own influence.
– In the long run of Russia, this war really does not pay off. Putin and the consolidation of his power pays off. The Russian president cannot withdraw at the moment because he would weaken his influence. However, the Russians are constantly suffering. The last official data that could be verified spoke about 120 thousand. Russian soldiers killed. I think that these losses are much, much greater. In my opinion, this exchange of rocket fire, contrary to appearances, is more favorable for Ukraine than for Russia. The more that Ukrainians aim typically infrastructure, but they very much limit losses among civilians – he calculates.
Moreover, the Ukrainian government has changed the rules of crossing the state border during martial law and men aged 18 to 22 will be able to go to other countries. After Russia began the invasion, Ukrainians aged 18-60 could not leave their country. This is a big change, which, according to the expert, is also an element of showing the strength of Ukraine.
– It looks like a show for a Ukrainian society. Ukrainian authorities want to show that they control the situation. It is such a signal that it is not as tragic on the front as it might seem and you can free part of society from this rigor. Of course, this required the reorganization of the entire collection and registration of people in Ukraine. I think that now, however, everything works much more efficiently and less corruption than at the beginning of the full -glass war – he argues.
And he adds: – At the same time it is a signal for both Russia and Ukrainian society. Ukrainian authorities say: it's hard, but Ukraine improves its situation. This is how you have to receive it too. Pressing a society that has been fighting non -stop for three years can be dangerous. It could threaten Ukraine itself. I think these actions are here.
