Security guarantees have become the main topic of Washington negotiations. The parties are currently trying to reach an agreement on the terms of the guarantees and the clear role of each country.
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According to the publications “The Wall Street Journal” and “Axios”, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio led a group of national security counselors in Ukraine and other European countries, who will develop security guarantees. Ukraine will be transformed into a “thorny pig” that will cause serious damage to the future aggressor with its “needles”, causing the invasion price to be too high for it.
According to a source of the Ukrainian publication “Zerkalo Nedeli”, during the negotiations at the White House with the participation of the leaders of the European and Zeenski states, JD Vice Vice Vice tried to systematize the approaches of the main options for providing guarantees. He expressed two options of action.
The first option
The US and European countries offer Ukraine something similar to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. But then each country must ratify the agreement on the granting of military assistance through its parliaments. In addition, the scenarios will be approved that will describe who, what and when they offer Ukraine military assistance. This means that all those who assume such responsibility thus undertake to provide not only weapons, but also military force.
According to the source, after these words, everyone's mood was immediately worse, because the allies are not clearly prepared for this now.
The second option
The consolidation of the Ukrainian army, which should be well coordinated and strong: the number of Ukraine's armed forces should be 350-400 thousand people. But Vance immediately warned that the United States will not participate in the financing of the Ukrainian army, but that the United States could sell to European countries if Europe is ready to support Ukraine's armed forces.
In addition, Vance said that it is necessary to analyze all the possible scenarios, to outline the reaction mode and to seek compromises in various crisis situations within the two guarantee options mentioned above. For example, in the case of a hybrid scenario: Russia does not attack directly, but a “People's Republic of Kharkov” appears in Ukraine, which announces its desire to meet with the Russian Federation. What should the guarantee countries do in this situation? Should or not intervene in the Ukrainian “internal civilian political conflict?
However, contrary to the popular opinion, Article 5 does not automatically oblige allies to enter the war. Although all NATO members are obliged to provide assistance to a victim of aggression, the assistance should not necessarily be military: the assistance given to an ally is left at the discretion of each member of the Alliance.
According to The Wall Street Journal, guarantees will consist of four components:
-The first is the unfolding of allied troops in Ukraine.
-The second is to ensure the anti -aircraft defense, which will include air defense systems to protect the critical infrastructure and civil objectives.
-The third is the supply of modern weapons, including high precision missiles.
-The fourth is represented by the mechanisms of monitoring the respect of the armistice.
The words about security guarantees on the module of article 5 rather remind of the manipulations of a magician who distracts the public. With such reassuring promises, the West does not bind to Putin's hands, but blindly Kiev, notes Zn.ua. But Ukraine is full to refusing guarantees such as the Budapest Memorandum. Sometimes, a simple handshake is sufficient for part to “sign”, but a document ratified by all the parliaments of the world will not prevent it from ignoring the obligations.
