Europe went to Washington to negotiate through representatives and returned to put into practice what was previously negotiated in Alaska. Ukraine went to propose the purchase of an armament that no longer exists with money it does not have. Only the war continues in its own logic.
Photo: Twitter / X
On August 18, the small summit in Washington, in two, took place, the bilateral meeting Trump – Zelenski, as well as that between the US President and the important European leaders of the self -titled “Coalition of will”, plus the Finnish president.
Although the two parties, the president of the US and the Europeans, have different agendas and approaches to the Ukraine war, this was not observed, the note being a working meeting in which the head of the Executive, Donald Trump, reprimands or praises the ministers depending on how they resolved their tasks.
From time to time they forget their names, as was the case with Finnish President Alexander Stubb, harder to recognize outside the golf course.
Otherwise, everyone brushed everyone, the caima being taken, of course by the welcoming host, without which these wonderful things would not have existed.
Some small, very small, stridents have escaped, it's not a country end, everyone is full of good intentions, but that's it, it happens.
The Finnish president felt necessary to explain his presence at the meeting, referring to geography – the longest border with Russia – and history – the 1944 Finnish example of a “neighborhood” situation with Russia.
Only the example is about a period when Finland accepted the territorial requests required by the Grand and Aggressive Neighbor, one of the consequences being the return of weapons against a former ally, whose representative was also at the table, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
And then, and now, the President of Finland was / is a Swedish ethnic, will be a coincidence, what did she mean?
The President of the European Commission, Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen, insisted on the “file of Ukrainian children” taken by the Russians, a high humanitarian issue and President Zelenski, but which caused a genre comment “not for this we gathered here”, from President Trump.
Photo: Twitter / X
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was thinking elsewhere when Trump explained that the armists are no longer fashionable, now it is important to get directly to peace, “as I talked to President Putin”, so he tried his luck once, noted and passed.
The other participants were on the line required by such an event, smiled moderately and had short and object speeches, does not happen every day that Europe, through representatives, to be called to order and crowded, Pardon, received by the head of the White House, in the Oval Office.
It is important for everything to breathe unity and consistency, a message of strength to the Kremlin dictator who has to find out, once and for all, that he cannot do everything that goes through his head, thank you for participating, now I go to the red phone to tell Vladi how the discussions went, yes Svida … Good bye, Mark, Good bye, Good bye!
***
We are in a time when the land is prepared for the denouement, but because we lack the relevant, true information, about the situation on the front, as well as those regarding the national, military and economic resilience, of the two combating parties, we extract fragments of potential evolutions from what is offered through a noisy media circus.
For now, the two presidents, Trump and Putin, seem to have found an exit of this warrior equation that he is trying to pack and sell the rest of the world.
The reasons why the interests of the two align in this period are certainly different.
It is not excluded that Ukraine is just one of the bilateral discussion chapters, the speed with which Moscow responded to the initiative of the US President again to engage in a negotiation process with Ukraine being a wider consequence of security negotiations with the American part, probably “tempting” for the ex-forerunner, The proposals of the American party as “quite interesting”, which in diplomatic language means a lot.
Photo: Twitter / X
It is a two -speed political negotiation campaign, while the American part is the fan of a fast calendar and an accelerating walk through the throats, the Russians also seem to be transferred in the field of peace negotiations, principles and procedures specific to the war of wear.
The objective of both parties is to get out of this situation, as I said, for their own reasons, but the time windows are different, the White House is in a hurry, any day scattered in a direction other than China is a lost day.
For President Putin, long negotiations means leaving isolation, in fact a re -entry to the western stage of the world, because Russia isolation was more a propagandistic desire than a true success.
Also, these negotiations, in which little is discussed and postponed, mediate the evolution on the front, ensures the time required for Russian forces, in particular, to strengthen their advancement and to methodically cross the fortified alignments of Donbas, among the last that the Ukrainian army has available.
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Photo: Twitter / X
Because the war is really going, let's not forget that, on the front.
In the war it suffers and dies, and the suffering of the soldier eo in the large picture of the war, sometimes important, to be calculated in its final price.
Especially when it is reached at a time when the soldiers are not missing.
In an interview published by “Rzeczpospolita” / Republic, one of the most respectable Polish publications, the analyst Konrad Muzyka, director of the Rochan Consulting, offers an image without the media shades on the front, especially pointing to the problems that the Ukrainian army passes:
– The Russians maintain the initiative along the front, although there are situations when the Ukrainians manage to perform successful counterattacks. Russian forces have submitted 10 to 12 kilometers in several directions, and the front begins to show signs of disintegration;
– For the next period, the Kremlin's effort will probably be directed to the Slovian urban agglomeration – Kramatorsk, the main remaining fortified area of Donetk. Fighting operations will continue in the same logic so far, slowly rhythm, strengthening the territory under control to keep human losses at a low level;
– at this moment, 650,000 Russian soldiers participate in the Ukraine operation, 40,000 being newly arrived from January 2025. The Russian forces managed to maintain a high rate of replacement of the units that have registered losses, which ensures a constant pressure on the Ukrainian troops;
– The biggest problem of the Ukrainian army, at this moment, is the lack of soldiers. There are also losses in battle, but the main cause of this situation is deserting, leaving the units. The consequence is a continuous decrease in the number of fighters at the contact line. Officially, 20 – 30,000 people are mobilized every month, but most do not reach the front;
– to the problem of the lack of fighter personnel are added others, structural: the quality of the order, the personal equipment of the military, the operation of the command rates, all influenced by the current phase of the war;
– the situation of an army that is constantly withdrawing is different from that of one who is successful, others are the recruitment or volunteer figures, otherwise the end of the war is perceived;
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– In general, the Ukrainian army maintains the front using drones and artillery. However, due to the large number of Russian drones, the artillery cannot be used as it should, any movement of the artillery systems being monitored and, subsequently attacked with artillery fire within 1-2 minutes. For a few other minutes the swarms of Russian drones already appear, ensuring the destruction of positions;
– it has reached the stage where 70 – 80% of the entire logistical effort on the front is directed for the operation of drone units, the rest for infantry. Important is no longer the continuous line of trenches defended by infantrymen, but the survival of drone operators, those who can block the advancement of Russian forces;
– It has also been reached at the stage where the war of wear is not about the destruction of the enemy's living force, but about the annihilation of its drone units. The next six months will show whether the Ukrainian drone forces – appreciated to be qualitative, still, over the Russian – will be able to stop the advancement of the Russian forces or if the latter will be able to exploit the fractures in the front lines, where, for now, the soldiers are missing;
– As for the hypothesis that increased western aid could change the situation, the conclusion is pessimistic, it will not happen, the problems on the front are problems of the Ukrainian army: the quality of the order, the number of military, the use of forces, human or drones. A transfer of hundreds of attacms ballistic missiles will not change the nature of the war, for the reoccupation of the Ukraine territory it needs infantry and artillery, has neither one nor the other in sufficient quantities, the Western equipment is not a universal remedy;
– Maybe a shortening of the front lines on natural alignments that are easier to defend would be a solution, finally appreciates the Polish analyst who, of course, also knows that such an approach has not entered the Kiev options so far.
***
Let's go back to the little Washington summit.
Where, according to the “Financial Times”, President Zelenski proposed to President Trump that, in exchange for security guarantees provided by partners, the US is understood, first of all, Ukraine to purchase US weapons and equipment worth $ 100 billion.
Money that would provide the European states present, through representatives, at this meeting.
After three years of war, in which everything was sent to Ukraine, money, weapons, ammunition, the situation is about: the US reserves of equipment that can be sold are approaching zero, the funds of Europeans for external military aid are still there, while Ukraine begins to miss people to use these weapons.
As the French soldier would say at Waterloo …
