There is currently many nice words about the potential conclusion of peace in Ukraine, behind which there is not much content – said Olga Tokariuk from the American Think Tank Cepa. In her opinion, Russia hopes that it will be able to further deceive US President Donald Trump.
The Friday peak of the US and Russia leaders in Alaska and the Monday meeting of leaders in the White House did not bring us closer to long -term and just peace in Ukraine – assessed the expert of the Washington European Policy Analysis Center (flail).
– Donald Trump wants to end the war between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible and at all costs. He does not care if Ukraine will have to make concessions, whether he will put pressure on the victim, not the aggressor – said Tokariuk.
– It is quite worrying that the US president is now in some way between Russia on the one hand and Europe and Ukraine on the other. He tries to act as a mediator, while earlier (…) he stood strongly on the side of Europe and Ukraine. And this is in favor of Russia – she added.
According to her, Vladimir Putin may be forced to make concessions under the influence of stronger pressure, such as US and EU sanctions against Russia, and secondary sanctions against countries that buy Russian oil and gas. – We saw how the sanctions imposed (by the USA – PAP) on India prompted Putin to a very rapid consent to meet Donald Trump in Alaska – said Tokariuk.
She added that Putin certainly cares about avoiding sanctions against China. Secondary sanctions could hit Beijing hard, and then on Russia, which is addicted to China economically and politically – the analyst pointed out. Europeans can also be emphasized, including confiscating frozen Russian assets.
Tokariuk reminded that a draft law on sanctions against Russia was created in the USA, whose co -author is the Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. – She has not been accepted so far. Trump did not realize his threats. He deliberately delay with deciding to impose further sanctions on Russia, which in a sense shows that there is a lack of political will – the expert continued.
When asked about the position of Russia in relation to the possible presence of NATO forces in Ukraine as part of a security guarantee, Tokariuk assessed that now Moscow does not seem to agree, despite what Trump says. This was ruled by the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Lavrov. – We never heard from the Russian authorities that they would be ready for it. We only heard the interpretations of the Russian position from various sources, not from the Russians themselves – she pointed out.
– So I don't think it would be possible now. The question also arises whether Europeans seriously consider this possibility. I do not see (among them – PAP) too much desire to actually do it and distribute strength there – added the analyst.
She noted that the government in Kiev remembers the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, in which Ukraine gave its nuclear weapon in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the USA and Great Britain. These countries promised that they would guard the Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty. The guarantees did not work – Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. Therefore, Tokariuk added – Ukraine does not trust Russian promises and contracts signed with Moscow.
According to her, “the only solid and strong guarantee of security” is Ukraine's membership in NATO. – I doubt whether Ukraine would sign under any agreements that would exclude the possibility of its membership in NATO, because Kiev may hope that (after Trump – PAP) an American president will come, who will be more favorable to Ukraine, and the position (USA – PAP) as to Ukraine membership in NATO may change – she continued.
According to her, in addition to joining the North Atlantic alliance, the priority of the Ukrainian authorities should be the presence of Western soldiers in its territory. Another guarantee of security could be the defense of the Ukrainian airspace, weapon delivery or exchange of intelligence. It is also important to strengthen the Ukrainian army and guarantee this support in the long term – emphasized the interlocutor of PAP.
Tokariuk admitted that she is quite skeptical towards the potential meeting of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelnski with Putin. – I don't think Putin would seriously want to meet with a Zelnski face to face. He said many times that he did not recognize Zelanski as the legitimate president of Ukraine. He does not even consider Ukraine to be a state that has the right to exist. So I would be very surprised if this meeting took place – she continued. “(…) I can be wrong, but I perceive it to a Russian attempt to play delay,” she said.
According to her, the Russian side hopes that she will continue to deceive Trump to gain time and continue aggression against Ukraine.
She is also worried that in principle, there is almost no more talk about Russia's responsibility for aggression and war crimes committed. The expert assessed that “everyone is trying to please Trump now, nobody wants to say things that can upset him.”
– We are now talking about a peace agreement without any real preliminary conditions (about the agreement – PAP), in which Ukraine, not Russia, will go to really significant concessions. (…) Real problems are unfortunately not discussed. There are many nice words, but I don't think there is a lot of content behind them – she concluded.
From Washington Natalia Dziurdzińska (PAP)
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