In a discreet office in Kiev, the teams of Ukrainian military psychologists work with a clear stake: how do you convince the ordinary Russian citizen not to send his son to the front? The answer is disturbing simple: not with calls to humanity or democracy. Not with images of Ukrainian victims. But with fear, selfishness and rumors about the chaos behind the line.
The truth does not convince in an authoritarian regime. Personal interest, yes./foto: shutterstock
It is one of the conclusions reached by Ukrainian experts in psychological operations, after three years of experiments, writes Eurmaidan Press. Those who have studied old British propaganda textbooks in World War II already know: the truth does not convince in an authoritarian regime. Personal interest, yes.
What does not work
Peter Pomeranțev, from the London School of Economics Business Institute, an expert in misinformation and author of the book “How to win an informational war”, explains clearly: images with Russian soldiers killed. Calls to compassion for dead Ukrainian children? Ignored. Documentation of war crimes? I remain without echo.
Instead, another kind of messages work. When the Russians are told that the prisoners of common law are sent to the fight, that the rape between the soldiers are silent, that in the Russian cities crime explodes while the army is on the front, the reaction is immediate. Fear takes the place of propaganda. Emotional truth replaces ideology.
Sefton Delmer's forgotten lessons
Pomerentsev brings back a forgotten figure: Sefton Delmer, the architect of British propaganda against Nazi Germany. The BBC was sending idealistic calls to the German people. Delmer, on the other hand, launched fake radio stations, who seemed to be issued by Germans revolted by the corruption and abuses of the Nazi regime.
“Der Chef”, one of these shows, related about the transformation of a monastery into a military brothel, about priestly clothes carried by prostitutes, about abuse and sacrilege. The message was always packed as a revolt, but the content fascinated. Delmer never said explicitly “don't fight”, but everything was leading there.
What did he offer, besides the scandal? Useful information: the areas that will be bombarded, cities where soldiers can take their family safe. The listeners were treated as people, not as enemies. And, perhaps most importantly: they felt that they were part of an internal conversation, not targeting the “enemy's propaganda”.
Why authoritarian propaganda cannot be “disassembled” with facts
An authoritarian regime operates on the basis of a psychological contract: the leader offers “orders”, and instead receives loyalty. When signs of chaos appear – unpaid soldiers, abandoned families, the collapse of the ruble – the contract is forced. For many Russians, messages that reach these sensitive points are more convincing than any call to democracy.
It is precisely for this reason, says Pomerentsev, the current efforts of the West, focused on the “free media” for the Russian opposition, reach only 11% of the already critical Russians. The rest – that is, the majority – reacts only to messages that directly affect their interest or fear.
Why Ukraine can't do this widely
Sefton Delmer had the resources of a rear state: a team of hundreds of people, a mansion transformed into a center of operations and the most powerful transmitter in the world. Ukraine, located in total war, has neither the technical means nor the necessary budget for a global information campaign.
The West, says Pomerentsev, says he wants to “slow down the Russian war machine”, but he does not take the basic steps to undermine the Russian military morality. No radio network, no satellite television, not even coordinated text messenger operations.
What themes could shake the Kremlin regime
Among the real vulnerabilities of the little regime identified by experts are:
-the development of popular support -the president's rating collapsed below 60% after the Ukrainian offensive from Kursk;
-economic instability -the depreciation of the ruble, the non -payment of the loans and the increase of the expensive loans affects the middle class;
-Army disagreements -families of soldiers who do not receive financial compensations;
-Fractures in power circles -lack of confidence between political and military elites;
-Frica de China -Kremlin follows the signs of distance from Beijing with anxiety.
In an authoritarian regime, loss of control is the biggest nightmare. When signs of panic appear in official communication – as it happened in the case of Russian withdrawal from Kursk – is the optimal time for pressure. But the Western response was again modest.
“Black” propaganda is not pleasant – but it works
Sefton Delmer did not “educate” the Germans. He told them, in essence, that they can be corrupt, selfish, cowardly – because everyone else is the same. And that's exactly how they weakened the motivation to fight.
It is a method that does not like modern democracies. It is morally dissonant. But it is effective.
“It's not about making the Russians better,” says Pomeranțev. “It's about making stupid soldiers.”
The truth does not overcome propaganda. But fear, personal interest and shame can. Ukraine learned the lesson. The West, for now, hesitates. And time does not flow in favor of those who only know what works – but they do not have the courage or will to apply it.
